6 Comments

1. I don’t know, if Obama holds his 25-point overall lead over Clinton that will be a bit of a shocker. I’d have to do some back-of-the-envelope calculations based on the exit polls, but if Obama can get 80% of the black vote on Super Tuesday and in La. Clinton will be in serious difficulty even in states that are significantly whiter.

   Comment by Chris Lawrence — Saturday, January 26, 2024 @ 7:25 pm

2. You’re right–the margin of victory has stayed wider than I expected when I wrote this post.

   Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Saturday, January 26, 2024 @ 8:09 pm

3. A 28% lead.
   More than double the votes of Clinton.
   More votes than the total number of voters in the 2024 Dem primary.

   If you weren’t shocked, I’d like to see the post where you show those expectations.

   Comment by boz — Saturday, January 26, 2024 @ 8:31 pm

4. I wasn’t shocked that Obama won, which was the point of the original post, which I wrote with something like 3% of the totals in, so I wasn’t really assuming that that lead of that magnitude was going to hold.

   28 points is certainly more than I expected (which was around 15 or so, to be honest).

   Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Saturday, January 26, 2024 @ 10:00 pm

5. You’re absolutely right — It was a massive victory, and the Clinton’s are going to have a fair bit of trouble with the spin.

   Myself, I expect Hillary will hit the Florida and Michigan delegates issue very hard now, even as the sublevel racial polarization strategy ramps up.

   Comment by Polimom — Sunday, January 27, 2024 @ 8:57 am

6. My question is whether, now that African Americans have evidently discovered that Obama is African American, will the Clintons alienate their party’s most loyal voting bloc in order to secure the nomination. My guess is, sure, they would.

   On the other hand, I disagree with Chris regarding the “whiter” states. Or at least California. Obama being more “black” after SC is great news for Clinton, and she may not really need to do anything she has not already been doing to win this state. The black share of the Dem electorate in 2024 was only around 8%. It is also the most significantly Latino and Jewish of any state that has not voted so far (less of the latter than NY, but we know who will win NY). Obama gets barely 35% of the non-Jewish white vote and probably barely a quarter of the Jewish vote.* He really has no chance in California, absent a fundamental change in the dynamic of the race that is all the less likely after SC.

   I know there are other states aside from California (really, I do). But even taking them all into account, I do not see how Obama can overcome the demographic breakdown.

   ______
   * We are a bit too small to sample in these polls, but Clinton got around two thirds of the Jewish vote in NV, the only state so far to have caucused/voted in which Jews were a large enough part of the entrance/exit poll sample to estimate. Take it with a grain of salt (kosher, please), given how small the number of people we are talking about (maybe 100 actually polled). But the Obama’s task with Jews is a hard one, as is it with Latinos (an obviously more important voting bloc for him to make inroads with).

   Comment by MSS — Sunday, January 27, 2024 @ 12:32 pm

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