Via Reuters: Romney climbs into Florida tie with McCain: poll
Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, wiped out a 3-point McCain advantage overnight to pull into a deadlock with the Arizona senator at 30 percent. The margin of error in the poll is 3.4 percentage points.
[…]
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee gained 4 points overnight to register 14 percent and move past former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who continued his downward slide by losing two points to 13 percent.
Texas Rep. Ron Paul was at 3 percent and about 9 percent of likely Republican primary voters in Florida were undecided.
It would clearly appear to be the case that Thompson’s exit has aided Romney. If we take a) the clear perception in much of the GOP electorate that Thompson was an heir to Reagan joined with b) the equally strong perception that McCain is not a conservative along with c) Thompson’s lack of an endorsement of anyone currently in the field, it stands to reason that the candidate considered the most “conservative” would gain the most, and that is Mitt Romney.
The perception game here is most interesting, as from my observations, McCain is not as moderate as he is being perceived to be and I find it intriguing that Romney is being seen as a torch bearer for the conservative movement given his clear and dramatic changes on issues that social conservatives in particular hold most dear.1
The interesting factor is going to be post-Florida once it is clear that Giuliani’s candidacy has crumbled, as one would expect that those voters would then head in McCain’s direction. Then, once February 5th likely deals a death-blow to Huckabee, where does his support go (I would think it would split between McCain and Romney, although by what percentages I could not even guess at this moment).
Sphere: Related Content- Romney has changed his view on both abortion and gay marriage, usually issues that are so dear to social conservatives’ hearts that they demand near purity on the them both. Yet, it would seem that many are banking on the theory that the “fake” Romney was the one who supported socially liberal positions in the past to get elected in Massachusetts and that the “real” Romney is the current incarnation–i.e., that he is now been freed from his need to pander to those libs in the northeast. The evidence upon which this is based is elusive, to say the least, but nonetheless, this appears to be the thinking. [↩]
McCain indeed is one of the farthest to the right in the Senate, based on scaling of roll-call votes (more here, including in the comment thread). And Romney is, well, who knows?
And, as Steven has pointed out, on those (few) issues where McCain has staked out an “independent” stance, so did Thompson when he was in the Senate.
But then again, most voters seem to perceive Obama as more moderate and independent than Clinton, when the voting records show very much the opposite.
Comment by MSS — Sunday, January 27, 2024 @ 12:21 pm
It’s interesting that Mitt has gained ground on McCain during the period that McCain got the endorsement of the Governor Crist and Senator Martinez, arguably the 2 most popular FL Republicans. I guess that speaks to the worth (or lack thereof) of endorsements by politicians.
Comment by Buckland — Sunday, January 27, 2024 @ 12:29 pm
I knew that Romney changed his position on abortion…but was he ever actually in favor of allowing gay marriage? I don’t think so. Though, I could be wrong.
Comment by doug — Sunday, January 27, 2024 @ 1:41 pm
When Romney ran against Kennedy for the Mass. Senate seat in 1994 he promised to be more por-gay rights than Kennedy.
I will look for more sources, but a quick Google search brought me to this BoGlo story which gives a quick precis:
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, January 27, 2024 @ 1:51 pm
I doubt Romney has truly erased any advantage McCain had. The previous poll showed the two separated by 3 points, with a margin of error of 3 points. Now it shows them tied, with a margin of error of 3 points. I suspect that everybody has the same opinions they had before, since statistically there is no difference between the two polls. If Romney has a 3 point lead next week, with a margin of error of 3 points it will also be the same. We’re simply looking at a close race.
Comment by Max Lybbert — Sunday, January 27, 2024 @ 9:03 pm