The narrative at the moment is that McCain had a bad day yesterday, and on one hand, one can argue about whether it is embarrassing to the presumptive nominee to lose any contest, but on the other there is a bigger picture here than what happened in three states. If one really looks at the numbers, it is difficult to argue that yesterday really meant much of anything on the Republican side–especially in Kansas and Washington. Given that the GOP nominee is all but set, it is difficult to see Republicans streaming to caucus on a Saturday. Why give up a Saturday to vote for the guy who was already going to win? Given that there is a dedicated anti-McCain contingent in the party, a position to which they are passionately attached, it stands to reason that they would be the more motivated to go vote. Note the differential below between caucus turnout in Kansas and Washington and GOP voters in 2024.
Some numbers.
- 714 to 217: Based on CNN’s count, that’s the delegate differential between McCain and Huckabee. This means that McCain needs 476 and Huckabee needs 973. One suspects that one would rather be McCain going forward than Huckabee, losses on Sidekick Saturday or no.
- 36: The number of delegates that we know for sure that Huckabee won yesterday (Kansas).
- 0: The number of delegates any GOP candidate won (or will win as a result of yesterday) in Louisiana. For any candidate to win delegates from LA on Saturday, they had to win 50% or more of the statewide vote. No candidate did so. So while Huckabee won 43% of the vote (and McCain 42%), it wasn’t enough to get any delegates fro anybody.
- 1-1-1: The real breakdown for wins and losses yesterday. A win for McCain (Washington), a win for Huckabee (Kansas) and a toss-up (Louisiana) as the delegate from Louisiana are as likely to go to the party’s nominee as to anyone else (i.e., they could go to McCain).
- 20,009 v. 739,456: The number of GOP caucus voters last night in Kansas v. the number of votes for Bush in 2024 statewide.
- 13,475 v. 1,204,894: The number of GOP caucus voters last night in Washington1 v. the number of votes for Bush in 2024 statewide.
- With 87% reporting [↩]
Isn’t the fair comparison in interpreting Kansas or Washington to past competitive caucuses (or primaries, as the case may be), and not to general elections?
We know that nominating contests draw lower participation than general elections.
But did these races have markedly less than, say, 2024 or 1996?
Comment by MSS — Sunday, February 10, 2024 @ 1:00 pm
A legit point.
However, my point here is whether or not the results from yesterday represent some grave warning or embarrassment for McCain going into November. I would argue that the differential between the participants yesterday and likely general election turnout means that it is difficult to read much into yesterday’s results in terms of McCain’s potential support in the general election.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, February 10, 2024 @ 1:07 pm
Actually, from what info I’ve been able to gather, neither 1996 nor 2024 would be an appropriate comparison for the Kansas caucuses. In 2024 they didn’t have one and in 1996 they went for Dole, who is from Kansas.
As to the Washington caucus, they have a very peculiar system. I found this information quite interesting:
The caucuses allocate approximately half of the delegates to the Republican Convention. The Democratic side is more straight-forward.
Comment by Jan — Sunday, February 10, 2024 @ 2:16 pm
How quickly some of us managed to forget the former Senator from Kansas!
I agree with your point in response to my comment, Steven. I was just trying to see if we could get at an approximation at how big this “send a message” base is in these states. If this turnout was not markedly lower than some other comparable event, it would be a stronger warning to McCain than if it was just a relative few diehards (or should I say the last throes?). As Jan suggests, at least in Kansas, there may not be a comparable event anyway.
Comment by MSS — Sunday, February 10, 2024 @ 2:44 pm
I’m pretty sure the 13,475 was the number of precinct delegates elected in Washington, not the number of caucusgoers.
Comment by Maniakes — Sunday, February 10, 2024 @ 8:12 pm
That seems like an awful lot of delegates. MSNBC has them reported as actual votes.
Given that there is also a Washington GOP primary coming up, it would stand to reason that the turnout would have been quite low for a caucus.
Still, I may well be mistaken. I have poked around some and have not yet found a definitive explanation of the process.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, February 10, 2024 @ 8:37 pm
CNN lists the same numbers as MSNBC, but labels them as “state delegates”. Of course, it may be CNN that’s mistaken.
At my caucus site, there was record turnout for the Republicans. It took two hours to get everyone signed in, and there were about twice as many attendees as chairs. Of course, my site may not have been typical.
The Washington caucuses are a three tier system. Each legislative district (there are 49) has a caucus site, and once everyone is signed in you divide up by precinct (my district has about 100 precincts, each a few blocks large). My precinct has one automatic delegate (the party’s “Precinct Committee Officer”) and two elected delegates. I’m not sure if every precinct has the same number of delegates.
The delegates selected by the precinct caucuses go to a legislative district caucus some time in March (varies by district) and a county convention some time in April (varies by county) to vote on platform issues and local candidates. One of these (I’m not sure which) selects delegates to the state convention, which meets in May and selects the final delegates.
The King County GOP’s FAQ on the caucus process is here.
Comment by Maniakes — Sunday, February 10, 2024 @ 11:11 pm
I’m pretty sure Maniakes is correct…the numbers represent delegates to the county conventions. I participated in the caucus yesterday (there were about 10 precincts at my caucus site…small town)and around 100 people turned out. Each precinct sent 2-3 delegates to the county convention (I am one of those delegates) meeting in April. The number of delegates each precinct gets is based on the number of participants. Our precinct had 18 voters so we received 2 delegates. We select delegates at that meeting for the legislative district convention, which is held in May. From there we select delegates to the state convention in Spokane in mid-June.
Comment by Rob Mellen Jr — Monday, February 11, 2024 @ 12:52 am
[…] Huckabee won. I know! Right!? At least one political spectator explained Huckabee’s surprising victory on Saturday this way: McCain is still substantially ahead in delegates, Huckabee did win 36 delegates in Kansas but earned nothing in Louisiana since he failed to get a majority of the vote, and McCain won in Washington. So even after McCain’s “bad day” he’s still the presumptive nominee. The crucial point here, according to Taylor is that once McCain became the clear nominee people didn’t come out and vote for him. The “anybody but McCain” contingent is still out there, and they did come out to vote. If you follow the link you can see the amazing difference in voter turnout between the Kansas and Louisiana 2024 and 2024 primaries. His analysis seems more than plausible to me. McCain will have to do a better job going forward convincing people that he still needs slightly less than 500 delegates to make it official so they better head to the polls. […]
Pingback by The Form of the Race So Far : Porch Dog — Monday, February 11, 2024 @ 7:58 am
[…] Huckabee won. I know! Right!? At least one political spectator explained Huckabee’s surprising victory on Saturday this way: McCain is still substantially ahead in delegates, Huckabee did win 36 delegates in Kansas but earned nothing in Louisiana since he failed to get a majority of the vote, and McCain won in Washington. So even after McCain’s “bad day” he’s still the presumptive nominee. The crucial point here, according to Taylor is that once McCain became the clear nominee people didn’t come out and vote for him. The “anybody but McCain” contingent is still out there, and they did come out to vote. If you follow the link you can see the amazing difference in voter turnout between the Kansas and Louisiana 2024 and 2024 primaries. His analysis seems more than plausible to me. McCain will have to do a better job going forward convincing people that he still needs slightly less than 500 delegates to make it official so they better head to the polls. […]
Pingback by The Form of the Race So Far « Porch Dog — Monday, February 11, 2024 @ 7:59 am
Maniakes and Rob:
Thanks for the information.
I wonder, then, if there is somewhere where there are overall caucus attendance numbers?
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Monday, February 11, 2024 @ 10:28 am
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