Via The Trail: Ron Paul Beats Own Fundraising Record
In 2024, on the day John Kerry accepted the Democratic presidential nomination, the Boston senator raised $5.7 million on the Internet, the biggest online fundraising day on record.
Yesterday, Ron Paul, the Republican congressman whose rock star status on the Internet has singlehandedly fueled his campaign, broke that record, raising nearly $6 million in 24 hours.
On Nov. 5, which was Guy Fawkes Day, a symbol of rebellion in British history, Paul hauled in $4.3 million in 24 hours. And yesterday, the 234th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, the day that helped spark the American Revolution, Paul’s Web-savvy, intensely loyal supporters completed another “money-bomb,” raising nearly $6 million from more than 50,000 donors, half of whom were new donors. With 14 days left in the fourth quarter, the Texas Republican has amassed more than $17.5 million.
This is all very fascinating, but I continue to think that Paul has a ceiling that he cannot rise above. He is a niche candidate with a passionate support base, but he does not have the ability to translate that support into the general electorate.
And I don’t think that the “Rock Star” analogy is the appropriate one. Instead of acting like the fans of a rock star or other run-of-the-mill celebrity, I would argue that Paul’s followers are actually more like scifi fandom (e.g., Trekkies and the like). Like scifi fans, Paul supporters represent a specific, passionate segment of the population who are willing to mobilize and put their money where their mouths are, and are convinced that their numbers are bigger than they really are. Plus, Paulites, like most scifi fans, are computer savvy, whether in terms of fundraising, or in terms of rapid-response to online discussion of their candidate.
December 17th, 2024 at 9:13 am
Whatever. Ron Paul 2024.
December 17th, 2024 at 10:43 am
What metric are you using to advance this theory of a hard support cap?
I was always informed that the amount of money raised is the best indication of campaign success until the primaries actually took place. In that sense, Ron Paul is the current frontrunner.
Polls, on the other hand, are handy for showing relative momentum from poll to poll but are poor indicators of absolute numbers. Pollsters always poll the participants in last cycle’s election, so the people who most closely resemble the incumbent (and if there is one, the incumbent himself) garner the highest absolute numbers. This is clearly the case this cycle, as Romney/Giuliani, being effective Bush clones, have had the highest numbers for a good while now, and Huckabee is making a lot of noise more through what his increase says about his momentum than what his absolute numbers are.
So, by money, RP is the clear frontrunner (and Huckabee is dead last). By momentum, RP has been consistently on the rise nationwide and Huckabee has of late become a force to be reckoned with, at least in Iowa. To me, it seems the two names to watch this cycle are Paul and Huckabee.
So by what standard do you infer a cap to Paul’s support?
December 17th, 2024 at 11:04 am
Ultimately, votes–but that has yet to take place, I will grant.
But no, money is not the end-all of support. Dean, for example, was once the front-runner in 2024 in terms of money and we know how that turned out (indeed, Kerry had to loan himself money to keep afloat at one point).
Polls, imperfect as they may be, are a better indicator of support than money. Paul’s poll numbers clearly make him a second-to-third tier candidate.
Further, Paul does not appear to have the support of any of the significant elements of the GOP selectorate, nor does history of the GOP suggest that Paul’s message is one that will lead him to the nomination.
Just because a candidate has an intense and dedicated set of followers does not mean that his appeal can be translated to a mass level.
Look, if Paul does win, I will be more than happy to concede the point. I wonder how many Paulites will concede that they were wrong when the time comes…
December 17th, 2024 at 11:39 am
You have some valid points, but as we all agree, the real test is coming in the next few weeks, Can Ron Paul break out into the main stream? The answer is an absolute ‘maybe’
I hope he does, but even if he doesn’t, he’s made an impact. After all, when was the last time you heard Candidates talking about the Constitution? Now, do I think they’re doing more than lip service and trying to look good when/if Paul is knocked out of the race? Perhaps, but it’s still something positive that would not have happened otherwise.
December 17th, 2024 at 11:59 am
I generally agree with your points. The issue you haven’t addressed is ‘where is the ceiling?’ All candidates have some limit above which their support will not rise.
The other interesting issue is voter turnout. If the Paulites can show up at the primary polls in very high percentages the results could vary significantly from the telephone polls.
December 17th, 2024 at 1:00 pm
Dr. Taylor, you sound to me just like every other main stream media proponent, propagating the message that they have. I have received several polling calls, and not one mentioned Ron Paul during the poll. They gave me a choice of who I would vote for and Ron Paul wasn’t a choice. The media is broken. The polls are broken. “Paul supporters represent a specific, passionate segment of the population,” – I don’t agree with this, I know a lot of Ron Paul supporters, and they come from ALL walks of life. I think we are seeing the birth of a revolution. We have been fed messages by the media and our crooked politicians forever, and the youth today (18-35) have decided they won’t tolerate it anymore.
December 17th, 2024 at 1:16 pm
You are right… Ron Paul is a niche candidate. That ever-elusive freedom-loving Constitution-supporting niche. There is a name for these people. They are called Americans.
December 17th, 2024 at 1:17 pm
Kevan,
Given the nature of polling, I find it rather unlikely that you have “received several polling calls”–and even if you have, I have to wonder as to whom it was that was calling. Paul has been included in major polls, and there is no compelling reason to doubt those numbers.
And while I am sure you know lot of people, anecdotes do not an argument make.
Further, it seems every four years we hear how the youth are going to rise up, yet they never do. The youth, for example, were going to propel Dean to new heights. Yet, not so much.
December 17th, 2024 at 1:20 pm
I wholeheartedly agree with #6 about the broken media and polling system. No poll should fail to ask about Paul, or on the Democratic side, Kucinich and Gravel. And no “debate” or media comparison of the candidates should leave them out. All these candidates have national organizations, no matter how small they may be. And all three are current or former members of Congress. So, pretty much be definition, they are not fringe.
At the same time, Dr Taylor’s analysis is correct about the low chance of Paul’s breaking in to the tier of serious contenders for the nomination. And that is not because poll respondents are not hearing his name from the pollster (though that certainly does not help).
I can make both of the above points because I am mindful of the distinction between “politics as a vocation” and “science as a vocation” (as Weber put it many decades ago).
If Paul really represents the vanguard of a “revolution” then polling and media won’t hold him back.
(Full disclosure: In addition to being, like my former student, Steven, a political scientist and blogger, I am also come from a “specific passionate segment of the population” that favors an electoral “revolution” from below. I have no candidate who speaks for me, though the three mentioned in this comment trump almost all the others currently running. Paul may be my fourth or fifth choice in this unimpressive field; I prefer the insurgents on the Democratic side, but I admire Paul for what he is doing within a party that is hostile to his anti-imperialist and anti-politics-as-usual message.)
December 17th, 2024 at 1:26 pm
Here is a link that is merely one example of why Ron Paul does not rank very high in your polls…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPpCvF7N3Vg
Watch that clip and feel free to comment on how fair you believe that recorded phone poll to be.
December 17th, 2024 at 1:27 pm
On the issue of polling, I haven’t seen any major polls that omit Paul, but it has been an article of faith amongst (or so it seems based on numerous places I have read it) the Paul faithful that there has been an orchestrated attempt to keep knowledge of his support from the public.
I would think that if Paul were gaining ground, the media would be all over it–it would be the kind of story that they would love. Think about how they have reacted, for example, to Huckabee’s current surge. And, quite frankly, Paul is far more interesting than Huckabee.
December 17th, 2024 at 2:29 pm
I stand corrected on the polls. I know many have failed to ask about Kucinich and/or Gravel, so I was prepared to believe that Paul was getting the same treatment.
December 17th, 2024 at 8:18 pm
The internet is more real than the polls. Regular people who never get calls from polsters are taking advantage of the only media which gives them a voice in the political process. It is a campaign BY the people for a man who is FOR the people, not the big money behind the other candidates. America is waking up. Ron Paul’s revolution is a fight for liberty, prosperity, security, and our wonderful, timeless constitution. We are NOT going to let big media decide who is “electable“, based on style, image and conformity to artificial mainstream party values. Ron Paul is a threat to corporations who profit from the status quo, who own the media. That’s why he is marginalized, ignored, spun as a long shot fringe candidate with no chance of winning by the mainstream media. We thinking people know better. Just you wait. A new day has dawned for our democratic process. Thank God for the internet. It gives us a voice, and defies the media “spin” which deliberately suppresses truth and favors those who don’t really challenge the status quo. We are leveling the playing field by posting comments which spin in favor of Ron Paul, a true patriot, conservative, REPUBLICan in every sense of the word. Go America!!
December 17th, 2024 at 10:04 pm
hey i enjoyed reading this about Ron Paul, and i wonder why also he is not included in the news very much,i am impressed with his views, would like to see more of him in the news
December 19th, 2024 at 10:59 pm
He hopefully will be mentioned once some of the caucuses get started. I just hope all of our efforts happened soon enough for Iowa and the earlier ones.