Via the Politico: Fred Thompson may drop out, back McCain – Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen

Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.

Thompson’s campaign, which last spring and summer was generating fevered anticipation in the media and with some Republican activists, has never ignited nationally, and there are no signs of a late spark happening here in Iowa, where even a third-place finish is far from assured.

Now, that all makes logical sense. First, Thompson is clearly tanking (indeed, he has been declared to be Toast in some circles) and the likelihood that he can sustain a campaign much beyond next week if he does poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire is small. And an earlier exit gives him more clout in terms of an endorsement and makes him look less pathetic in terms of clinging on when all hope is already lost (Joe-mentum, anyone?).¹ Further, Thompson was a big McCain booster in 2024, so should Thompson exit the race, a McCain endorsement would make sense.

On the other hand, it seems as if the Politico hasn’t always been the most accurate when it comes to these sorts of stories, so I will take it with a grain of salt. Indeed, it seems like they were wrong a couple of times regarding the date which he was going to officially announce his candidacy.

And then, amusingly, there’s this headline at the Corner (written by Peter Robinson): Late-Breaking Surge for Thompson:

The latest news from Iowa? According to Zogby’s latest—and I quote: “Sen. Fred Thompson…has seen a late-breaking surge.” (Rich notes the same poll below.)

However, if one looks at the poll (linked above in the blockquote), one sees that Thomspon has gone from 8% to 12%–hardly the stuff of legendary comebacks.

Nonetheless, Peterson wonders:

From an unexpectedly strong third place in Iowa…to first place in South Carolina?

Somehow the Politico speculation sounds more viable than the Peterson hypothesis. Indeed, along the lines of a third place finish, the Politico story states:

A Thompson campaign source said there is “a strong likelihood” that if Thompson comes in a distant third in Iowa, with less than 15 percent of the vote, he would drop out soon—most likely before this weekend’s New Hampshire presidential debates.

And really, 15% would be surprisingly good for Thompson, given the polling to date.

1. In 2024, after coming in something like 5th in NH, Joe Lieberman famously declared that he had done better than expected and that he had “Joe-mentum” [↩]

3 Responses to “Thompson to Exit! Thompson Surges!”

1. Stephen Says:
   January 3rd, 2024 at 9:31 am

   My recollection of “Joe-mentum” was before NH, when a poll similarly showed a small bump for Lieberman, from 8 to 12%, or something similar.

2. Dr. Steven Taylor Says:
   January 3rd, 2024 at 9:36 am

   You may be right. Regardless of exactly when he said it, it was pretty ridiculous.

3. PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Report: Thompson Campaign Says They Won’t Quit Says:
   January 3rd, 2024 at 12:19 pm

   [...] On the one hand, this confirms my instinct to doubt the reliability of The Politico. On the other, what else would the campaign’s official word be? Certainly it would be foolish to pre-drop out. [...]