The CNN Political Ticker’s headline reads Democrats consider new presidential nominating process, but what they report is hardly a new system, but rather some fairly minor tinkering with the current one.
The short version is that they appear to be seeking some changes to the primary calendar and the diminution of influence of the superdelegates, but that is no way that will result in an especially different (let alone “new”) system. The boldest (and I use the term advisedly) change would be the introduction of regional grouping of contests. While a serious attempt at regionalizing the contest would be an interesting reform,
"This would not be a mandatory obligation upon the state parties," the commission stated. "The commission recommends that these clusters be staggered throughout the window to allow for a deliberative process that benefits all voters and caucus-goers through the country."
Sans a required restructuring, it is difficult to see such a change happening, especially since the plan still foresees allowing four states a privileged position in the process: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The privileged status of specific states in the process utterly shapes the entire nomination acquisition strategies for candidates as well as the subsequent significance of the primary calendar itself. As such, various states are going to base their contests on those factors rather than recommendations from the DNC on staggered regions.
Indeed, we only need to look at proximate cause of this discussion for reform to see evidence to support this conclusion: the behavior of Michigan and Florida in the 2024 primaries. Both blatantly broke the rules established by the Democratic Party in regards to the schedule and risked not having their delegates seated at the convention all in an attempt to make their primaries more relevant vis-a-vis the early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, et al. If state parties have already been demonstrated to be willing to break the rules in response to the privileged positions held by some states, what makes this commission think that a set of suggestions will change such behavior in the future?
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December 6th, 2024 at 1:26 pm
[...] Democrats Seek to Adjust Nominating Process Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief in Politics.Dec 6th, 2024 | View commentsComments Political scientist Steve Taylor offers analysis. [...]
December 6th, 2024 at 2:11 pm
The Democratic Primary system needs a major reworking since in 2024, the Democratic Party primary process will probably be the real election for President. The Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries need to be moved to April or Mary so that there will not be a presumed presidential nominee for a year before the inaugural. Also, if the Democrats keep the four preferred states, the next election for president will occur between the Iowa Caucus and whatever remain of the SuperTuesday primary. During modern times, has a nomination been in doubt after the SuperTuesday primaries?