As everyone already knows, the Senate voted this morning 60-39¹ to pass their version of the health care reform bill.

I did a little preliminary analysis of the vote beyond the partisan breakdown and found the following.

Based on constituents represented by each Senator,² we have the following:

No	212,921,478	(35.08%)
Not Voting	4,269,245	(0.70%)
Yes	389,745,059	(64.22%)
Total	606,935,782

While it may ultimately prove to be the case that this legislation is wildly unpopular as critics claim,³ it should be noted that in terms of representativeness the process has been forwarded by elected officials who represent a substantial number of residents.  Granted, it may well be that the represented will take out their displeasure on the representatives, but there is democratic recourse possible here, so we will have to wait and see how it plays out.

In terms of states, we have the following:

State Delegations Voting "Yes":	24	(48%)
State Delegations Voting "No":	13	(26%)
State Delegations Split:	13	(26%)

The “Yes” states:  AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, MN, MT, ND, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA. WI, WV

The “No” states:  AL, AZ, GA, ID, KS, ME, MS, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY

The Split states:  AK, FL, IA, IN, KY,⁴ LA, MO, NC, NE, NH, NV, OH, SD

If we look at the states in terms of how they went in the 2024 presidential election, we find the following:

McCain States voting “Yes”:  AR, MT, ND, WV

McCain states Split:  AK, LA, MO, NE, NH, SD

Obama states voting “No”:  ND, ME

Obama states Split:  FL, IA, IN, NC, NV, OH

Of course, what the Split states and the Obama/McCain states show are the areas of the country where there exists some competitiveness in terms of partisan voting at the state level (several are the ever-popular swing states of recent vintage in the electoral college, e.g., Florida, Ohio, Missouri, etc.).  It also shows a few states where national partisan shifts have yet to settle in.  For example:  it is difficult to see Maine remaining much of Republican state at the Senate level once the current set of Senators retire.  Likewise, one would expect that Arkansas would, like the rest of South, trend towards the GOP in the Senate.

1. Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning (R) missed the vote—he is slated to retire. [↩]
2. A metric that double-counts all residents and isn’t especially sophisticated (hey, it’s Christmas Eve), but interesting nonetheless [↩]
3. And for which there is polling evidence to support (see here).  However, in the absence of a final bill and the commensurate spin, it is difficult to really know what the public’s view of the legislation actually is.  Further, polling on highly complex issues is notoriously problematic, and this is a very complex issue. [↩]
4. Split “no” and “not voting” [↩]

4 Responses to “Looking at the Senate Health Care Vote”

1. Chris Lawrence Says:
   December 24th, 2024 at 4:10 pm

   If I were totally bored I’d run the numbers based on when senators are up for reelection. But I’m not THAT bored.

2. Steven L. Taylor Says:
   December 24th, 2024 at 5:06 pm

   I have actually done that (pathetic, yes?)–but haven’t gotten into a post as yet.

3. Chris Lawrence Says:
   December 24th, 2024 at 11:00 pm

   Great minds distract themselves alike.

4. Senate Health Care Vote Breakdown Says:
   December 25th, 2024 at 6:34 am

   [...] Joyner | Friday, December 25, 2024 Steven Taylor (here and here) breaks down the Senate’s party-line vote on the health care bill in some [...]

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