As expected, the result from today’s elections in Colombia is a run-off next month. What was not expected is that Santos came very close to winning outright in the first round and that he had roughly twice the votes of Mockus.
From the National Registry:
Trying to find an additional 3.5% for Santos will be a lot easier than finding the 28.5% that Mockus needs. There is also the question of who will turn out for the second round—and what the candidates do in terms of the campaign between now and then.
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May 31st, 2024 at 10:50 am
Were you, Steven, as surprised as I was at how close it came to being over in one round? Well, it pretty much is over, other than the formality of that second round.
(I don't think I have commented before with this new form; I hope it does not always take so long to load!)
May 31st, 2024 at 10:57 am
I was quite surprised by the disparity between the two candidates and when I saw the very early prelim numbers thought that Santos might win outright. And yes, I fear that it is all over but the shouting, as they say.
Can you think of a case where this kind of disparity in the first round led to the second place winner actually pulling it out?
I have to think that some (maybe most) of the PC and CR votes go to Santos, which will be enough for him to win. Of course, there is the turnout question. However, for Mockus to have done as poorly as he did in Bogotá indicates to me that his chances of winning are extremely small.
I have not had any trouble with speed and Disqus (nor has anyone mentioned any). However, if it keeps up, let me know.
June 6th, 2024 at 12:06 pm
There was the contest in 1986 (or thereabouts) in Portugal, where Freitas do Amaral had something like 47% and Soares had about half that. Soares won. That's the only case I can think of. Soares, a (very moderate) Socialist, won the support of the Communist candidate, who was in a not-too-distant third place, whereas Freitas was the candidate of all the right.
Obviously, Mockus will not have any of Soares's advantages.
(The comment form was certainly slower to load than I would like it to be. But I suppose you know I am not the most patient blog-reader!)
June 19th, 2024 at 4:22 pm
[...] While, as Matthew noted at the end of the first round, tomorrow’s second round balloting in Colombia to determine the next president is largely “superfluous.” First round results can be found here. [...]