TV ads score big in Bush turnaround Kerry’s wide lead erased in states targeted by both
A week of hearings on Capitol Hill and criticism from a former counterterrorism aide have eroded President Bush’s poll standing on fighting terrorism. But that’s nothing compared to the damage that Bush’s campaign ads may have done to Democratic candidate John Kerry.A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows a remarkable turnaround in 17 battleground states where polls and historic trends indicate the race will be close, and where the Bush campaign has aired TV ads. Those ads say Bush has provided ”steady leadership in times of change” while portraying Kerry as a tax-hiking, flip-flopping liberal.
The ads have been one factor in wiping away an inflated lead Kerry held in those states. Most of them have had primaries or caucuses that allowed Democrats to dominate the news and Kerry to emerge as a victor. In a survey taken in mid-February, Kerry led Bush by 28 percentage points in those states, 63% to 35%. Now Bush leads Kerry in them by 6 points, 51% to 45%.
Of course this also shows that Kerry’s leads in these states were at least, in part, a function of the media attention given to the primaries.
And, as expected:
The Bush campaign also has begun defining Kerry before he has defined himself. In the states where the ads have run, Kerry’s unfavorable rating has risen 16 points since mid-February. In the other states, it’s up just 5 points. The margin of error for each group of states is +/–5 percentage points.”For Kerry having won the nomination, voters came away not knowing much about him,” says Kathryn Dunn Tenpas of the Brookings Institution, author of a study of re-election campaigns titled Presidents as Candidates. ”He’s a blank slate to a lot of people, so negative ads can have a big impact.”
