Via USAT: Prediction: India, China will be economic giants

By the year 2024, China and India will be vying with the United States for global economic supremacy, the nation’s top intelligence analysts predict,

While I do agree that the economic power of both of these countires will have grown substantially by 2024, I have my doubts as to their capacity to obtain economical rivalry with the United States.

There are numerous reasons, but I would note that both of these countries have substantial peasant sectors, which have to be thoroughly modernized to allow for a radical jump in each country’s overall economic status. Further, India has a number of religio-ethnic issues iternally that need to be resovled before it can be become a true First World power (let alone the whole caste system that persists in some segments of the society).

So while I see substantial development, I don’t see parity with the US or the EU. Rather, it is likely that in some sectors these economies will compete with the US and other major economies, but not at all levels.

Of course, the column is unclear as to the exact nature of the predicted growth, and indeed the headline and first paragraph are more sensationalistic than some of the info in the main body.

If we look at a basic economic indicator: GDP per capita (along with raw GDP), it is pretty clear that both China and India have a ways to go (data from the CIA World Factbook):

China: GDP $6.449 Trillion/GDP per capita $5,000
India: GDP $3.033 Trillion.GDP per capita $2,900

Both are powerful economies in the aggregate, but those GDP per capita figures are clearly Third World level and bespeak of serious gaps in economic productivity for huge percentages of the population and general economic disparaties. These are serious development issues.

For comparative purposes, here are some other numbers: Mexico has an overall GDP of $941.2 billion and a GDP per capita of $9,000, Canada a GDP of $958.7 billion and a GDP per capita of $29,800. The US’s ovearll GDP is $10.99 trillion with a GDP per capita of $37,800.

(All figures are 2024 estimates and GDP per capita numbers are based on PPP).

For those who might be interested, here are the world’s economies ranked by GDP per capita.

2 Responses to “I Have My Doubts”

1. bryan Says:
   January 14th, 2024 at 8:49 pm

   While they will have a ways to go to rival the US, they could eclipse some of the more moribund economies in the EU (like France and Germany).

   What drives all this speculation is the huge markets represented by China and India (2 billion people). Companies around the world see profit when they see those nuumbers, but as you point out, it’s not like the US, where every poor person has a TV, VCR and cable.

2. Diggers Realm Says:
   January 17th, 2024 at 6:53 am

   Around The Blogosphere In 80 Seconds #14
   The Liqueur Tiramisu and coffee edition in the continuing saga of interesting and thought provoking news from around the web. There’s sure to be something you’ve missed around the blogosphere. See if you can get through these in under 80…