PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts

~Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2024 election~

~If Sabato can use a crystal ball, why can’t I use a toaster?~

General News, Poll, Commentary and Bloggage

CQ Politics: 8 Questions and Answers about the (Confusing) Michigan Primary.
Via the LAT: Republican eyes on Michigan primary
ABC News: POLL: Transformed by Iowa and N.H., ’08 Kicks Off as a Free-for-All
Via the Michigan SOS: Michigan Primary Facts and Stats [PDF]
Via the LAT: Running on one issue: Michigan’s economy

Checking the Bread: Movement Since the Last ToM


Barack Obama	Dough is on the rise.	Mike Huckabee	The heat is on.
Hillary Clinton	Dough is on the rise.	Mitt Romney	The heat is on.
John Edwards	The heat is on	John McCain	Dough is on the rise
Dennis Kucinich	Crumbly	Fred Thompson	Getting darker
Mike Gravel	Crumbly	Rudy Giuliani	Getting darker
Bill Richardson	Out of the toaster	Ron Paul	Beyond toasted
		Duncan Hunter	Crumbly

Gazing into the Polished Stainless Steel of the Toaster. The Winter of our Wonderbreadlessness continues. In other words, no one in either party really has achieved true front-runner status. And really, there’s nothing wrong with that given that we technically just got started. Still, the races are taking shape, even if the dough still needs a little kneading.

This week is somewhat uneventful for the Democrats (aside, of course, for the foray into identity politics and questions about whether the Clintons are engaging in race-baiting), as the Michigan primary is of low significance for them, given the lack of most of the candidates on the ballot and the lack of delegates and such.

On the Republican side, this could be Mitt’s Last Stand, as if he can’t parlay his “native son” status into a win over McCain, it is impossible for the Toastman to seeth him ever being wonderific.

Note: the coverage is a tad light this week, but better a short stack than none at all. ¹



The bag is currently empty.	The bag is currently empty.

Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton Plenty going on, but mostly this is a week of a holding pattern for these two as they prepare for Nevada and South Carolina. The real question is how the race debate affects this side of the loaf.	Mike Huckabee Huck’s hope? The South. He is currently in the polling lead in GA. John McCain Michigan was perhaps the last high spot of McCain’s 2024 White House bid. This year he hopes that it solidifies him as the frontrunner. Mitt Romney Michael Medved argues that Romney is the weakest of the GOP candidates in terms of November electability.

John Edwards. Is Edwards still running? It sure seems like Obama and Clinton are getting all the attention.	Rudy Giuliani While Mayor Late State may think he has ‘em right where he wants ‘em, the truth of the matter is that when the staff starts working for free, it’s not a good sign. The Florida Firewall remains his only hope, and the polls aren’t looking as Rudyish as Hizzoner would like. He is Burnt Toast in waiting.

	Fred Thompson Fred won 1% in New Hampshire. Let me repeat: 1%. That is the definition of Burnt Toast. (Indeed, toast aflame). Via the NYT: A Combative Thompson Sways Voters With apologies to my friend Sean Hackbarth, but when you are getting hope from being in a statistical tie for second (and when one is fourth in the poll), it isn’t a good sign. Yes, miracles happen, and Fred was zingin’ folks at the debate, I still see Fred as Burnt Toast heading for the Crumb pile. Ron Paul Burnt toast with cash. Concord Monitor: Paul supporters ‘freak out’ town clerk

Dennis Kucinich & Mike Gravel Via the AP: Kucinich Seeks NH Dem Vote Recount Via OTB: Judge Orders Kucinich Included in Nevada Debate	Duncan Hunter Seriously, you are still running because? No. Really.

And yes, I am mixing my breakfast bread metaphors. Sue me. [↩]

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8 Responses to “Motor City Toast”

B. Minich Says:
January 15th, 2024 at 2:43 pm
You doubt the Doctor . . . Paul? What kind of Dalek are you?!?!?!

This probably goes to McCain, although Romney wouldn’t surprise me either.
Dr. Steven Taylor Says:
January 15th, 2024 at 3:24 pm
Political Mavens » The Pre-Michigan Toast-o-Meter Says:
January 15th, 2024 at 5:36 pm
[...] Just in time for the voting: Motor City Toast [...]
Punditry Says:
January 15th, 2024 at 6:45 pm
I Like Toast

Steven Taylor's latest Toast-o-Meter assessing the 2024 campaign.
The Moderate Voice » Domestic and international news analysis, irreverent comments, original reporting, and popular culture features from across the political spectrum. Says:
January 17th, 2024 at 1:16 am
[...] Taylor has a jewel of a blog called PoliBlog which focuses on the issues and seldom blasts any blog or blogger. His focus is on the art of political science. [...]
PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » The Latest Zogby Poll from SC Says:
January 17th, 2024 at 7:58 am
[...] emerge like a Phoenix from the crumbs at the bottom of the toaster in Florida! (or, maybe not). Sphere: Related Content Filed under: US Politics, 2024 Campaign || [...]
licity Says:
January 17th, 2024 at 1:19 pm
Comparing presidential hopefuls to bread…very clever. I wonder if anyone has ever referred to them as hypocrites in one form or another?
PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Post-Toasties (Nevada and SC edition) Says:
January 20th, 2024 at 10:12 am
[...] Ok, the Toaster failed to produce a Toast-o-Meter between MI and this weekend’s contests, but here’s a quick post-primary/caucus assessment. [...]