Lately whenever the Iranians have made some sort of announcement (like the one a few weeks back about alleged stealth missiles), I have been struck with the fact that it is clear that the Iranian regime is suffering from a significant inferiority complex. Like the little dog that barks more than the big dog, there is a clear need for the Iranians to be heard.
I do not want to be pollyannish about a nuclear weapon in Iran, although I remain dubious as to the likelihood of them using one of Israel, despite their President’s wild rhetoric. I remain unconvinced that wild rhetoric or not that that Iranians wish to commit suicide, which is what a nuclear strike against Israel would be, given the certain response to such a strike.
At any rate, yesterday’s announcement that Iranian engineers had manage to enrich uranium in a way that would allow for fuel for a nuclear power plant was more a PR move aimed at stoking national pride than it was a press conference. Most countries have less pomp and circumstance at presidential inaugurations than the Iranians had yesterday with the colorfully garbed individuals holding up cylinders meant to represent enriched uranium.
As such, I think the NYT (Iran Reports Big Advance in Enrichment of Uranium) gets it right here:
Outside experts said that while the country appears to have passed a milestone — one it has approached before with smaller-scale enrichment of uranium — the announcement may have had less to do with an engineering feat than with carefully timed political theater intended to convince the West that the program is unstoppable.
It is clear that the regime wishes to send signals to the West and to its own people as to their strength. Indeed, one has to think that the main target audience was more the Iranian people than it was anyone else.
April 12th, 2024 at 9:02 am
I know this has been said a million times before, but I can’t help but point out that Saddam Hussein (for all his many awful failings) generally played by the nuclear rules as dictated by the UN. And look where that got him. In that light, the behavior of Iran makes a lot of sense – they want to be a North Korea (too dangerous to invade), not an Iraq (weak).
Just to be clear, I’m not trying to blame all of Iran’s insanity on the neocons. But I think they do deserve some (dis)credit.
April 12th, 2024 at 9:06 am
The Germans had one of those before the First and Second World Wars too. Were I a person of imporatance in Israel, and with even Prince Turki bin Faisal of Saudi Arabia now publicly praising the Osirak strike, I wouldn’t give the Persians a chance to get that far. If I really thought Tehran had a reasonably survivable nuke, I’d be where NPR insists Rumsfeld is, reviewing my nuclear options.
Can you tell I’m a tad excitable?
April 12th, 2024 at 11:40 am
I don’t know who the Iranian government’s announcements are aimed at but if we don’t take them at their word as to their intentions and capabilities we are fools. They are dangerous and should be treated the same way we would treat a rabid dog, shoot first and examine later.
April 12th, 2024 at 11:56 am
The flaw in that analogy is that one bullet can slay a rabid dog. There is no on bullet solution to Iran. Further, you have to filter what these types of regimes say. That isn’t to say that their utterances oughtn’t be taken seriously, but that you can necessarily take them literally.
April 12th, 2024 at 2:54 pm
Iran Could Have Nuke in 16 Days
While most experts have said it would be months, if not years, before Iran could build a nuclear weapon, the State Department thinks it could be 16 days away:
Stephen Rademaker, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonprol…
April 12th, 2024 at 4:40 pm
What Does Iran Really Want
In order for this debate to be genuine, it must be predicated upon a proper understanding of what threat we are facing. We must somehow achieve consensus on the answer to the question of all questions, “What Do The Iranian Leaders Really Want”.
April 16th, 2024 at 11:40 am
[...] er: Iran
Maybe for some Persians and those in their various satrapies. So argue Poliblogger and the Politechnical Institute., though neither is terribly alarmist about the whole thing. I st [...]
August 24th, 2024 at 7:08 am
[...] yet in reality they had only made a small step forward in uranium enrichment. At the time I opined that Iran was suffering from a national inferiority complex and noted: Most countries have less pomp [...]