Via the LAT: Democrats’ Senate hopes lie with rural voters, poll finds
The Times/Bloomberg polls found that among likely voters:In Ohio, the Democratic challenger, Rep. Sherrod Brown, led Republican Sen. Mike DeWine, 47% to 39%.
In New Jersey, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez held a 45%-41% edge over his GOP challenger, Tom Kean Jr.
In Virginia, Democrat Jim Webb led Republican Sen. George Allen, 47% to 44%.
In Missouri, Republican Sen. Jim Talent was ahead of Democrat Claire McCaskill, 48% to 45%.
In Tennessee, Republican Bob Corker — the former mayor of Chattanooga — led Democratic Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr., 49% to 44%, in the race for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Bill Frist.
OH remains a clear loss for Republicans, while it looks like they will pull out MO–although I will grant that the numbers are really too close to call.
I am starting to think that Corker is going to win in TN despite the fact the Ford is a very attractive candidate. It is a pretty red state and I also think that given the closeness of the contest that it won’t take but a handful of people voting against Ford because he is black to tip the balance to Corker. The LAT story indicates that rural voters will be decisive in this cycle, and unfortunately it is the case that there is a higher probability of racial motivation from some white rural voters.
VA is going to be a nail-biter.
I think NJ has a high probability of going GOP: if in this political climate a Democrat is this close to a Rep with 14% undecided, then I question the Democrat’s ability to close the deal. Further, Menendez is facing serious ethics charges and part of the current political situation is one of anti-corruption. Further, Kean has his name going for him.
The thing that I find especially interesting, given the current political climate is the number of voters who are still undecided in many of these races:
OH: 14%
MO: 7%
TN: 7%
NJ: 14%
VA: 9%
Normally, I would agree with you about New Jersey, but Menendez isn’t a normal candidate. He doesn’t have a prior election record, or even much of a Senate record, to push people one way or the other. He’s still a new face in some ways, and I think NJ voters are still making up their minds about him. I believe he’ll pull out a win, by a very close margin. It will be a toss-up for many people, and the inclination of New Jersey to go Democratic will, I think, sway enough voters.
Comment by Harry — Wednesday, October 25, 2024 @ 11:17 am
I made the same argument about NJ Monday, but I am not ready to count out MO yet. It is still a close race, and don’t diminish the chances of the Fox ad changing things,
Comment by Talmadge East — Wednesday, October 25, 2024 @ 1:04 pm
I find your comments about the TN race to be disgusting. Since you find Ford to be an attractive candidate, than naturally any vote against must be racist!
What hubris!
Does the fact that he has embarassed himself by showing up at a Corker appearance tell you anything about the maturity of Ford? Does his father calling Corker’s operatives “crackers” affect your opinion? Could these things affect others opinions? Oh no, it’s only because he is black.
Grow Up!
Comment by Sadie — Wednesday, October 25, 2024 @ 5:33 pm
Sadie,
That’s not what I said. Perhaps you should reread before you rant. I noted that it would only take a handful of persons so motivated to tip the balance. And I’m sorry, but there are a handful of persons out there, especially in the rural South (where, btw, I live) who are, in fact, so motivated.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Wednesday, October 25, 2024 @ 9:29 pm
Comments like yours are unhelpful. I read what you wrote and understood perfectly. Are there areas of TN where Corker doesn’t stand a chance because of racial votes? My guess is of course! Do we point this out? Of course not! Nor do I think we should.
Stop the race baiting.
Comment by Sadie — Thursday, October 26, 2024 @ 9:24 am
So you are saying that is analyzing a electoral competition I am not supposed to look into all the factors that might influence the outcome of the election?
Where’s the intellectual honesty in that?
It isn’t race baiting, it is looking at reality.
I suspect you really won’t like my most recent post…
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, October 26, 2024 @ 9:32 am