Via the BBC: Ousted Zelaya makes brief return
Mr Zelaya, surrounded by supporters and journalists and talking into a mobile phone, lifted the chain marking the border between Nicaragua and Honduras in the frontier town of Los Manos and walked underneath it.
The BBC’s Stephen Gibbs said the military personnel retreated by about 20m (yards) as he did so, apparently unclear how to react.
Mr Zelaya, wearing his customary cowboy-style hat, walked up to a sign reading “Welcome to Honduras” but did not go any further into the country.
Less than 30 minutes later, the ousted leader crossed back into Nicaragua, saying the risk of bloodshed was too great.
Clearly a PR move, but one that I think he won, as he did manage to enter Honduran territory, gain international press coverage, and get back out without major incident. It is interesting that he was even allowed to enter Honduran territory at all. Further, the fact that the military appeared not to know what to do/the fact that they did not move to arrest him is telling (given the frequent statements by the interim government that he would be arrested). Indeed, this is now three specific opportunities to arrest Zelaya that have been passed over. Can anyone really argue with credibility at this point that what the interim government wants is a trial? They are clearly avoiding one.
Instead of arrest, the BBC notes Honduras chief’s return scorned
The interim Honduran President, Roberto Micheletti, said Mr Zelaya’s action was “ill-conceived and silly”.
And
Interim Deputy Security Minister Mario Perdomo said authorities did not bother to arrest Mr Zelaya because he barely entered Honduras.“Zelaya made a show of entering Honduras: he put one foot in, and left,” Mr Perdomo told Associated Press news agency.
“And he did this in a dead zone of the frontier, which we tolerated.”
I will allow that there was a certain degree of silliness to the event, but ultimately, as argued above, I think the event ultimately redounds to Zelaya in terms of PR and says something about the internal politics of the interim government. If, for example, they were truly unified as to what to do with Zelaya, he likely would have been either utterly blocked from entering or arrested. Instead he was allowed to pursue his press event. Of course, it does allow the entire situation to be kicked down the road yet again, which is what Micheletti and friends want.
Greg Weeks takes an alternative interpretation over who won the day:
Zelaya likely held out hope (or truly believed) that the police and/or army would back down when he arrived. Obviously that did not happen, though fortunately the entire episode appeared to be civil.This gives the coup government a bargaining advantage. Zelaya has now twice threatened to enter the country without doing so, while also giving various ultimatums. He will be taken much less seriously in that regard now, which greatly reduces the urgency of negotiations that were already going nowhere in particular. Micheletti will now likely make them drag out even longer.
True about the ultimatums, and true, too, that this will drag out (which continues to appear to be the likely outcome for all of this). Still, the interim government also issued threats that they did not fulfill (i.e., Zelaya was allowed in the country, albeit very briefly and he was not arrested).
Boz, meanwhile, likens Zelaya’s moves to the Hokey-Pokey and provides numerous links to news and blog sources on the topic.
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July 25th, 2024 at 12:57 pm
I’m rather less impressed with Zelaya’s performance. It’s the equivalent of planning the Selma-Montgomery march, then showing up on the day and saying “damn, there’s a lot of state troopers on that bridge,” walking a few feet in their direction, walking back, and then telling everyone to pack up and go home since you’ve made your point that you could walk in the direction of Montgomery. In short, not a showing for the ages in the annals of nonviolent resistance.
July 25th, 2024 at 1:06 pm
Greetings:
Now that deposed President Zelaya has returned to Honduras, as has been documented, and subsequently, of his own volition, left Honduras, is the previous expulsion, by the military, now a moot point?
It seems to me that it would be. His return to Honduras was not interfered with by the authorities nor his departure. Too smart by half, perhaps.
July 25th, 2024 at 1:31 pm
Chris: it is a fair point. I suppose that I simply assumed, like his attempted landing, that he wouldn’t be allowed in at all. Further, I remained quite focused on threats of arrest that continually go nowhere.
11B4O: I fear your reasoning escapes me.
July 25th, 2024 at 2:59 pm
Both sides are definitely playing some bizarro poker variation, that’s for sure - all they seem to do is bluff.
On the other hand I suppose Zelaya’s behavior is relatively responsible. I can’t see either Morales or Chavez behaving as tactfully under similar circumstances, and more than likely if Zelaya was the full chavisto some claim he is Honduras would be in civil war by now. (I can’t see Uribe ever ending up in the same situation, but he’d probably behave chavisticly too.)
As an aside, I wonder how many other modifications of chavism/chavistism I can come up with… it’s a great neologism.
July 25th, 2024 at 3:02 pm
Its chavistastic!
July 25th, 2024 at 5:02 pm
Greetings:
Let me try again.
My understanding is that there were two main issues in regard to former President Zelaya. One was his removal from office pursuant to a Supreme Court order, the other was his expulsion from the country subsequent to his removal from office.
If he has returned to his country and then left the country, is he “expelled” or now just traveling abroad?
July 25th, 2024 at 5:51 pm
In all honesty, I don’t see a 30 minute sojourn on the frontier erasing a military coup, no.
July 26th, 2024 at 9:41 am
[...] government continues to call it), then why have to censor the press, and for this long? If Zelaya’s extremely brief return to Honduras was, indeed, “ill-conceived and silly” (Micheletti’s words) then why [...]