The Massachusetts special election is finally upon us, so the latest round of US political drama is about to end, with a new one waiting in the wings (the exact nature of which will be determined by tonight’s outcome).
Nate Silver’s model sees the likelihood that Republican Scott Brown will be elected tonight: 538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite. A new poll gives Brown a 9-point advantage, while internal Coaklay polls give her one point.
Of the various things that we can learn from this contest is that the quality of a candidate matters. There can be little doubt that the Democratic nominee was going to go into this race with a substantial advantage. As Boston Herald columnist Michael Graham1 wrote:
This is the kind of political stupidity it takes for a Democrat to lose a Senate race in Massachusetts. You can’t just run a weak campaign, or commit a gaffe or two. You’ve got to run an absolute disaster of a campaign to lose to a Republican here.
And that’s what Coakley delivered. It wasn’t the Hindenburg or the Titanic. It was the Hindenburg crashing into the Titanic.
Indeed.
I will say this: competition is good for democracy, as is the notion that no one automatically deserves a given seat.
Sphere: Related Content- Although I have no idea what the title of his piece is supposed to mean in the context of this race: “Nothing Madisonian in this Martha” [↩]
