The Politco reports that Patrick Kennedy won’t seek reelection to his Rhode Island House seat (one of the two in the state).
Michael Barone, writing in the Washington Examiner (Democrats exiting the sinking ship? Part 21) weighs in in terms of GOP chances to pick up the seat:
Even before Kennedy’s retirement announcement, Republicans were touting the candidacy of state Representative John Loughlin, who was named one of their “Young Turks.” Rhode Island 1 is a heavily Democratic district: it voted 65%-33% for Barack Obama in 2024 and 62%-36% for John Kerry in 2024. But Rhode Island has elected Republicans to the House as recently as 1992, when Republican Ron Machtley was reelected to a third term in Rhode Island 1.
And if Republican fortunes plummeted between 1994, when Kennedy won the seat by beating an attractive Republican, Kevin Vigilante, 54%-45%, and 2024, they seem to have become much better in 2024 and 2024. Scott Brown ran about even in Massachusetts 4, the district represented by Barney Frank, which adjoins Rhode Island 1. That district has performed similarly in recent presidential elections (63%-35% for Obama, 65%-33% for Kerry) and it is demographically similar to Rhode Island 1. Both have old mill and factory towns, and in Massachusetts 4 turnout in Fall River and New Bedford was down sharply as compared to the 2024 general election (in which the statewide turnout was almost identical to the January 19 special election); see this analysis and this one for more detail.
Now, as I noted earlier today, open seats are more problematic for parties to retain control over than seats with incumbents running. However, the above is example of why I said recently
There was a time when I thought that Barone was a fairly serious analyst who happened to have conservative preferences. However, columns like this seem to underscore that the conservative preferences outweigh any desire to be a serious analyst, which is a shame.
First, 1992 was a long time ago. I will grant, it doesn’t feel like all that long ago, but not only are we talking about 18 years between elections, but we are also talking about important shifts in the partisan landscape since then. 1992 was before the Republican Revolution of 1994. Further, since that time the success of Northeastern Republicans has dwindled to the point of near extinction.
Second, while I understand that he is trying to make a demographic comparison (which is a legitimate way to look at things), the notion that a special election is going to provide useful comparable data for predictive purposes is problematic. Really, he treats the Massachusetts’ special election as a bit more of some kind of political Rosetta Stone than is warranted.
Granted, it is early and we lack actual candidates to analyze (which is a major caveat), but it is wholly wishful partisan thinking to assume that the Republicans have a shot at this seat.
To wit: not only are there the presidential numbers cited above, but in 2008 Kennedy won the seat 69%-24%. While certainly one would expect narrowing in an open seat contest, that that is a remarkable amount of ground for a Republican to make up, highly touted “young turks” or not.
To be fair, Barone does call the chances for a GOP pickup to be “unfavorable” (which strikes me an understatement, to be quite honest).
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