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Texas Toast or French Toast?
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Less than a week from right now the officially polling for Election 2024 begins. We start this final week of the race with no clear view of where the race will end up, as the polls are largely within the MOE, whether it be the national numbers or the Battleground states.
The strategies of the two candidates are as follows:
BUSH: Security, security, security. And: surety, surety, surety.
KERRY: The clear strategy the last two weeks has been the pounce on any and all stories in the news that might underscore the theme of “Bush is incompetent� and/or “Bush can’t be trusted�. The obvious examples are: the flu shot, the social security “January surprise� and now the Iraqi explosives story.
Reading the toast: It’s too close to scrape. The numbers are slightly Bush-ish, but since we aren’t sure if the numbers can be relied upon, one has to wait and see. Kerry’s gets some burning bread because of the poll numbers and his continued inability to close the deal, while Bush has the whole undecided problem, not to mention the Iraqi weapons story.
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THE KEYS TO THE KINGDOM
- The Big Three: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
- If Iowa and Wisconsin indeed go to Bush, it will make Kerry’s task more difficult, even if Kerry wins Ohio.
- It’s cliched but true: turnout.
Questions: To know who will get those Keys, there are some questions that need asking. If the answers to the first three are “yes” then Bush shoudl win–however, if the answers are, indeed, yes, then why are the national polls so close? The final question is Kerry’s main hope.
- Does Bush really have twice the African-American support this year than he had in 2024?
- Does Bush have a slight lead amongst women? A new poll
has determined that President George W. Bush holds a narrow 1.7% lead among women voters nationwide. Yet Senator John Kerry holds a slim lead in two of three key battleground states. Kerry leads among women voters in Florida (50.0% to 45.5%) and Pennsylvania (50.0% to 44.0%), while the race is a dead heat in Ohio (47.1% to 47.1%).
- Does Bush have a lead amongst independents? Zogby says he does.
- Will the undecideds indeed break heavily for Kerry? The debate over whether this is empirically the way it normally works is somewhat debated (see here, here (with response here) and here). Of course, if Zogby’s numbers are correct (a three point lead for Bush, with only 3% undecided), it may be a moot issue.
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BREWING ISSUES |
We know the basics: Iraq (how it was handled and how it will be handled), the War on Terror generically, jobs, taxes (especially the famed cuts for those making over $200k) and other domestic policy flotsam and jetsam. So, what stories are likely to dominate the campaign trail in the final days of the campaign?
- Rehnquist: voters who are paying attention won’t need t be reminded of the significance of this situation. However, how will the candidates find a way to point out that Rehnquist will likely have to retire (and could well pass away) in the next four years and therefore underscoring that there will be an almost guaranteed opening on the Court for the next President to fill?
- This will no doubt be a hotly debated issue: Increase In War Funding Sought
- The weapon’s tale. No doubt this one will be heard with partisan filters. Bush supporters will note the relztive numbers issue (and also question the timing the story), while Kerry supporters will use the event to underscore incompetence and the lack of troops.
For all the polling and Electoral College Info you can take:
Oh, What a Relief It Is!
Best. News. Ever (With Toast!)…
Trackback by Overtaken by Events — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 8:50 am
T-Minus 7 Days and Counting
The heat is on: the Penultimate Toast-O-Meter is available at PoliBlog….
Trackback by The Command Post - 2024 US Presidential Election — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 8:52 am
Nice round up!
I think there are 3 issues beyond “turn out” that are making this so challenging to handicap:
- new voter registration;
- cell phone users;
- base motiviation (which is really a variation of turn out)
The first two likely help Kerry, the last one could help Bush (assuming Karl Rove is correct about the 4 million Christian Connservatives).
Comment by Barry Ritholtz — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 9:00 am
Thanks–and you are corret. I would fold the whole cell phone/new reg issue into the question of trusting the numbers in the first place.
And no doubt: if there are in fact a gaggle of evangelicals who didn’t turn out in 2024, but who do this time, Bush will win. One wonders if the Rehnquist story will motivate them to do so.
Comment by Steven Taylor — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 9:05 am
The 5 Spot
Proving once again that I’m at least half the blogger Kevin is, I give you 5 things that you should see. Venomous Kate has a message for the whole world that is not to be missed. Jeff Quinton Has a…
Trackback by Wizbang — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 9:29 am
The Toast is Done
Steven Taylor has the final pre-election edition of the Toast-o-Meter….
Trackback by Backcountry Conservative — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 9:35 am
It’s Too Close to Scrape (Toast-O-Meter)
The next to last Toast-O-Meter (political analysis) is now up (Click Here). Your first two bites: BUSH: Security, security, security. And: surety, surety, surety. KERRY: The clear strategy the last two weeks has been the pounce on any and all…
Trackback by bLogicus — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 11:00 am
Toasting the election
Steven Taylor has his latest Toast-A-Meter up. There are more trends in this race than there are charges and countercharges among the candidates. But the one promising trend is that it looks like there’s enough interest in the election to…
Trackback by The Kudzu Files — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 11:07 am
One Week to Go
We’re running out of toast….
Trackback by VodkaPundit — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 11:21 am
The next-to-last thing you’ve been waiting for
The next-to-last http://poliblogger.com/?p=5090″>Toast-O-Meter is available for your political blogging pleasure….
Trackback by The Glittering Eye — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 11:30 am
7 Days Till Election Day…
Polblog’s Toast has a nice roundup.
Trackback by The MUSC Tiger — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 11:32 am
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Comment by Dave Schuler — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 12:12 pm
Around The Blogosphere In 80 Seconds
See if you can get through these - sometimes - hilarious entries from around the blogosphere in under 80 seconds (all links open in a new window for faster browsing). Alarming News covering a republican student kicked in the shins…
Trackback by Diggers Realm — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 2:14 pm
Toast-O-Meter
Political junkies will enjoy reading Steven Taylor’s latest Toast-O-Meter.
Trackback by Dean's World — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 2:30 pm
Toast-O-Meter
Political junkies will enjoy reading Steven Taylor’s latest Toast-O-Meter.
Trackback by Dean's World — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 2:30 pm
My View Of The Election
I’m inspired by this post at Powerine, looking at the similarities between this race and the race in 2024. There is a different comparison I want to make, and that’s to the race in 1980, Reagan vs. Carter. I’ve been looking at all these contradict…
Trackback by Secure Liberty — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 2:58 pm
I don’t buy the cellphone argument. I do agree that the answers to 1, and 2 are yes, and 3 is 50-50. I’m not sure about the missing evangelicals, but I know everybody is forgetting the Amish, with big populations in Ohio and Pennsylvania. They promised to vote this year, and they definitely don’t have phones. Note that Bush is expected in Lancaster, PA this week. That is no coincidence.
Comment by Steve — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 3:01 pm
Linky Link
Roundup on some interesting things going on the blogosphere today.Excellent pre-election thoughts and general strategery over at PolibloggerINDC has yummy dish on two more Security Council members that JohnJohn didn’t meet with either.Captain Ed has a…
Trackback by Intermittent Stream — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 3:07 pm
What Bush-ish numbers? Kerry’s steadily gaining almost everywhere.
Comment by Andrew Quinn — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 4:34 pm
Umm, Zogby, including the state-level polls, the RCP average, etc.
Comment by Steven Taylor — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 5:15 pm
I cannot believe that Bush could have doubled his polling among blacks, be leading with women and independents, and not be totally blowing Kerry away in the National Polls. At LEAST one of the above is false.
Comment by Mark — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 6:38 pm
Indeed.
Comment by Steven Taylor — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 8:25 pm
Political Sciehtist Steven Taylor: Race Too Close To Call (Toast-O-Meter)
Professional political scientist Steven Taylor has his next to last political Toast-O-Meter up here. If you haven’t ever read it you MUST — whether you’re a Democrat, Republican, Naderite or Space Alien (Alan Keyes supporter). It’s chock full of MUST
Trackback by The Moderate Voice — Tuesday, October 26, 2024 @ 10:33 pm