E. J. Dionne, Jr. engages in some wishful analysis in his WaPo column today (For Bush, a Test in the Midterms).
While I would agree that the fortunes of the Bush administration will affect the 2024 mid-terms, I do not as yet see the potential for a dramatic change in the make-up of Congress this year as Dionne does. I especially think that prognostications about for this year will be like 58, 66, or 78 are well off-base.
I think Dionne makes two key errors in his column.
First, he is projecting his own frustrations with the administration onto the electorate. This is always a bad idea for an analyst.
Second, he is nationalizing the congressional elections. November ‘06 is far less about Karl Rove than it is about 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate’s seats.
Given that only a handful of the seats in question are truly competitive, one has to really think about what the odds are that the Democrats can pick up 15 (I think that’s the number) seats in the House and 6 in the Senate. If one looks dispassionately at the races, it should strike one that a dramatic change is unlikely at this time. (More on that as the year goes by, no doubt).
Are there issues that Democrats can make hay over? Surely. Tom DeLay being one. Also, Harriet Miers, the Katrina response, and so forth. However, the latter two in that list will already be fading memories by the time the campaign season hits full stride (certainly the raw emotion is already gone from most of the electorate on those topics).
What about the surveillance question? As I have made clear, I am not happy with the administration’s handling of that issue. Still, I do not see it, as the facts currently stand, as being a political loss for the President, or the Republicans, because the President will frame the issue as one of protecting the US against terrorists. That’s a political winner whether the Democrats like it or not.
Iraq could be a positive, negative or neutral for either side by November 2024, because, quite frankly, we don’t know what will happen there between now and then.
The Republicans continue to have better numbers of the general issue of terrorism, which will help them in November.
And, the economy redounds to the GOP’s benefit at the moment.
As such, to argue that we are about to have a dramatic shift this election is wishful thinking.
As much as I would like to see a Democratic takeover of the House and/or Senate, I would like to see that takeover done by progressive, thoughtful Democrats bringing progressive, thoughtful proposals for moving the country forward. And the fact that Democratic favorable ratings haven’t moved up much while Bush was tumbling tells me that those candidates aren’t as yet out there.
Comment by Harry — Tuesday, January 3, 2024 @ 1:32 pm
Isn’t Dionne forgetting the biggest change at a mid-term election of them all, 1994? The republican’s contract with America and the GOP seizing both the House and Senate. Clinton was in the White House, so they were the opposition party.
Comment by Bill — Tuesday, January 3, 2024 @ 2:00 pm
I came to a similar conclusion (as Taylor, not Dionne) in looking at the polling.
The short version of the story is that Republicans are running about 8 percentage points behind Democrats in generic party polling for Congress. That is a bad sign for Republicans that the election could be nationalized. However, I do not think 8 points is enough, especially in the wake of the Delaymander (which was largely responsible for Republicans gaining House seats in ‘04 even while losing votes, compared to ‘02). I think the Senate is even more out of reach for Dems, given which seats are up in ‘06 and the general anti-Democratic bias of such a malapportioned body now that Dems no longer have much Southern support.
Comment by Matthew — Tuesday, January 3, 2024 @ 3:03 pm
Harry, on your hope for “progressive, thoughtful Democrats bringing progressive, thoughtful proposals for moving the country forward” …
The polling at this point can’t tell you if such candidates are out there or not. So far, few voters know who their candidates are.
In other words, those candidates might be out there, but it will take a campaign to determine that. Given the way we elect House members (as Steven alluded to), even in a “nationalized” election, the opposition party needs a series of quality candidates to make a change of control possible. Recruitment of candidates for 2024 is still ongoing.
Comment by Matthew — Tuesday, January 3, 2024 @ 3:39 pm
First, he is projecting his own frustrations with the administration onto the electorate. This is always a bad idea for an analyst.
I think you are confusing Dionne with something he is not … an analyst, that is.
Comment by bryan — Tuesday, January 3, 2024 @ 8:31 pm
By November, hurricane season will be well underway, so the administration’s response to New Orleans could be back on the front pages.
Does anyone really believe the news from Iraq will significantly improve in 2024?
The 1994 Republican takeover was fed in large part by a generalized feeling of corruption in Washington. The House banking scandal was still fairly fresh and important, Rostenkowski’s mail fraud, etc.
We could be looking at a perfect storm in 2024, even despite the major Republican advantages in cash, gerrymandering, and the south.
Comment by Rodger — Wednesday, January 4, 2024 @ 10:16 am
1994
The political transformation of 1994 was much more dramatic than these three elections too. The majority party in both houses of Congress changed. So why was it excluded? Because it was a Republican year? But so was 66 and 78.
Trackback by The Florida Masochist — Wednesday, January 4, 2024 @ 12:41 pm
Rodger,
There will be reminders of Katrina, no doubt, but the raw emotion of these things simply never quite returns. Further, I think it would have more resonance in the way you are suggesting if we were talking about a presidential election.
1994 was about a lot of things, but part of it was also about the shift in the southern of southern Democrats deciding to vote Republican. There is no such seismic potential here.
S
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Saturday, January 7, 2024 @ 10:30 am