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Sunday, August 26, 2024
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via the NYT: Taliban Raise Poppy Production to a Record Again

Afghanistan produced record levels of opium in 2024 for the second straight year, led by a staggering 45 percent increase in the Taliban stronghold of Helmand Province, according to a new United Nations survey to be released Monday.

[…]

Anyone who thinks that the Taliban oppose poppy cultivation and opium sales because of their religious fundamentalism are quite incorrect. It is true that during their reign in Afghanistan that opium production was severely cut , but they continued to tax the trade (and the cut in question was for only one year). Indeed, if one looks at the numbers, the policy on production to have been nothing more than an attempt to control price, not to eliminate the product (see here).

Back to the story:

The report is likely to touch off renewed debate about the United States’ $600 million counternarcotics program in Afghanistan, which has been hampered by security challenges and endemic corruption within the Afghan government.

That and the fact that crop elimination programs don’t really work, even thought we are always keen on pretending like they would, if only we had a tad more money.

Former Ambassador to Colombia, now in that job in Afghanistan, starts out well in the next paragraph, and then goes off the deep end:

“I think it is safe to say that we should be looking for a new strategy,” said William B. Wood, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, commenting on the report’s overall findings. “And I think that we are finding one.”

He’s right, we need a strategy, but I am highly dubious that we have found a new one.

Indeed, the entire enterprise continues to be one of rose-colored glasses. The piece noted that officials see “positive” signs in recent trends, yet the story also notes that last year Afghanistan sets a record for opium poppy production and that it amounted to 92% of the world’s supply. The state of denial over what constitutes “positive” outcomes and policy “success” continues to stagger.

And here is the heart of the problem:

Poppy prices that are 10 times higher than those for wheat have so warped the local economy that some farmhands refused to take jobs harvesting legal crops this year, local farmers said. And farmers dismiss the threat of eradication, arguing that so many local officials are involved in the poppy trade that a significant clearing of crops will never be done.

Let me submit: this isn’t a case of the poppy prices having “warped” the economy, the poppy prices simply reflect the prevailing economy. There is a higher demand for opium poppies than there is for wheat, and therefore the price goes up and wages for harvesting a product that pays a better price makes all the economic sense in the world. If there are any distortions in the local economy it is the fact that prohibition drives up price. That is simply a fact, whether one support prohibition or not.

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Filed under: War on Drugs, Afghanistan | Comments/Trackbacks (3) | | Show Comments here
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via WaPo: DNC Strips Florida Of 2024 Delegates

The Democratic National Committee sought to seize control of its unraveling nominating process yesterday, rejecting pleas from state party leaders and cracking down on Florida for scheduling a Jan. 29 presidential primary.

The DNC’s rules and bylaws committee, which enforces party rules, voted yesterday morning to strip Florida of all its delegates to the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Denver — the harshest penalty at its disposal.

The penalty will not take effect for 30 days, and rules committee members urged officials from the nation’s fourth-most-populous state to use the time to schedule a later statewide caucus and thus regain its delegates.

[…]

The DNC rules stipulate that states that have not been granted a special waiver must schedule presidential nominating contests after Feb. 5.

In other words, they can have a caucus sometime after February 5th to choose their delegates (an even that would cost the party and state $8 million, btw). The January primary, which coincides with a referendum on property taxes that Democrats oppose (so a vote is taking place that day no matter what), is now nothing more than a beauty contest. Further, at this point I am assuming the GOP primary, delegates and all, will still be on that date.

I understand that the DNC has rules, and that they have reasons to want to try and reign in the states, although their continued fealty to Iowa and New Hampshire’s “right” to dictate the primary schedule continues to baffle me. Further, the fact that Florida has been, and will remain, a key battleground state it strikes me as strategically odd that the DNC would do something that could negatively effect the way some voters in the state view the party. Really, if they want to pander, it makes more sense to pander to Florida than it does to pander to Iowa and New Hampshire.

I must confess, I find the following funny (if not ridiculous):

Donna Brazile, a member of the rules committee who argued for a swift and harsh punishment for Florida, said states’ desire to be more relevant in the nominating process does not excuse violations of rules intended to make the system fair for everyone.

Of the things that the current nomination system may be, fair isn’t one of them. Indeed, the general lack of fairness is the problem. At the moment the system to skewed to allow a handful of small population to make key decisions that shape the choices that the rest of the country will have in the process. Further, the rules in question have, in the past, created a situation in which large numbers of states (which really means large numbers of voters) were utterly unimportant in terms of choosing the nominees. Even now, with the mad rush to be early, the system is going to eventually produce a large number of voters who really might as well not go vote because the results will have been determined before their vote is even cast. How can that be a “fair” system? Indeed, how can that be a desirable system?

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Filed under: US Politics | Comments/Trackbacks (2) | | Show Comments here
Saturday, August 25, 2024
By Dr. Steven Taylor

On the implications of Nazi fashion choices:


h/t: A&I

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Filed under: US Politics | Comments Off |
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via the BBC: Colombia warlord loses benefits

The authorities said they had evidence that Carlos Jimenez, also known as Macaco, was continuing to smuggle drugs and run a criminal empire from prison.

He has been transferred to Colombia’s most secure prison, Combita, and will be tried as an ordinary criminal.

Jimenez could also be extradited to the US although no request has been made.

The move means Jimenez loses the benefits given to demobilised paramilitaries, including shorter sentences.

The idea that Jimenez could have been continuing criminal activities in prison is hardly a surprise. Indeed, for anyone familiar with Colombia’s track record on curtailing criminal activity by high profile prisoners, this news will likely elicit nothing more than a yawn.

The interesting part is that Jimenez’s actions are in violation of the demobilization agreement between the government at the paramilitary group known at the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC). The real question now will be if the Colombia justice system actually succeeds in treating Jimenez like a common criminal, and it will be quite interesting to see if the US seeks his extradition. From there the real question will be if this will dissuade other imprisoned AUC commanders from continuing their criminal activities.

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Filed under: Colombia | Comments/Trackbacks (2) | | Show Comments here
By Dr. Steven Taylor

You know it has been freakin’ hot when you look at the forecast, see that the projected high for the day is going to be 95, and think “yes! it has finally cooled off!”

(We have had a ridiculous run of 100+ temps for the last two or three weeks).

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Filed under: Hurricanes/Weather | Comments Off |
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via the AP: Rumors on Castro’s health swirl in Miami

Premature rumors of Castro’s death are a staple in this heavily Cuban-exile city. But their frequency has intensified in recent days after his 81st birthday came and went Aug. 13 with neither pictures, letters nor recordings from him.

Friday, the rumors were pushed into overdrive by a meeting of local officials to go over their plans for when Castro really dies and a road closure in the Florida Keys that was actually due to a police standoff.

A circular game ensued with radio stations reporting the rumors, citing TV stations, which cited the rumors on the street.

Apparently these rumors are are what led to the story I noted yesterday, wherein the Cuban government was officially insisting that Fidel was on the mend and would govern Cuban again in the future.

For whatever reason, the exile community in Miami has gotten especially wound up about the fact he Fidel failed to make a personal appearance at his August 13th birthday bash, and this has led to meetings noted in the quote above, as well as (according to Babalu Blog) heavy discussion on Spanish-language TV in Miami which have included assurances by the mayor that there is no evidence that Fidel is dead.

Right now the only “source” that is sticking to the story that Fidel is dead is the gossip blog, Perez Hilton, which should tell us all exactly how much real information there is out there on this topic.

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Filed under: US Politics | Comments/Trackbacks (5) | | Show Comments here
Friday, August 24, 2024
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via Reuters: Judge clears way for Noriega’s French extradition

A U.S. judge on Friday denied former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega’s demand for a speedy return home when his U.S. prison term ends next month and said nothing stood in the way of a French extradition request.

[…]

Noriega faces much more serious charges in Panama than in France. He has been convicted in absentia in his homeland for murder and human rights violations, including the 1985 beheading of Hugo Spadafora, an outspoken opponent.

His attorneys say he wants to go home to clear his name there.

Recent reforms of the penal code in Panama, however, could mean that Noriega would serve his the 20-year prison term awaiting him there under house arrest, because he is over 70 years old.

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Filed under: Latin America, Criminal Justice | Comments Off |
By Dr. Steven Taylor

To further the discussion from earlier in the week (here and here), here’s the latest from the Governor of CA on the proposal to split CA’s electoral vote up based on congressional districts: Schwarzenegger cool to electoral reforms

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger gave a chilly reception Thursday to a GOP-backed plan to change the way California awards electoral votes in presidential elections — a proposal critics say could tilt the outcome in favor of Republicans.

There is little doubt that the move is one that would help Republicans, as it is basically certain at this stage of the game that CA will go for the Democrats in 2024. Here’s the breakdown of how the districts went in ‘06:

9 of its 53 congressional districts are represented by Republicans. A Republican presidential candidate could lose the state overall but still pick up 19 electoral votes if he or she finished first in each of those districts.

And here’s how Bush did in ‘04 in CA, based on districts:

During the 2024 election, President Bush was handily defeated in California but carried 22 of the state’s districts. If the proposed change had been in effect then, he would have been awarded 22 of the state’s electoral votes with Democrat John Kerry winning the rest.

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Filed under: US Politics, 2008 Campaign | Comments/Trackbacks (1) | | Show Comments here
By Dr. Steven Taylor

We have an opening at Troy University.

Filed under: Academia | Comments Off |
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via the AP: Lawmakers promise legislation to reduce prison overcrowding

Members of a legislative oversight committee on Thursday committed to push for legislation next year that would create more drug courts and enhance other programs aimed at reducing prison overcrowding.

But one legislator warned that such programs may be used against them by political opponents.

“They will charge that you are soft on crime,” said Sen. Pat Lindsey, D-Butler.

This is a typical response from most politicians anytime anything dealing with drugs emerges: they run for the tall grass afraid that they are going to be accused of being soft on crime and/or for making it easier for preschoolers to use heroin. Although to be fair: the Committee is debating the proposal–whether it becomes law remains to be seen, of course.

The bottom line is that the state of Alabama (and other states) are having to spend remarkable sums of money on prisons, and much of that is driven by drugs convictions.

Prisons Commissioner Richard Allen said there are currently 24,500 inmates in state facilities, including 21,500 in permanent prisons, which he said were built to hold about 10,400. Allen said about a third of those inmates were charged with drug offenses, while 75 to 80 percent had drug problems that contributed to their crimes.

Which translates into:

“If we don’t stop this thing, our budget for prisons is going to equal what we pay for education,” Rogers said.

No matter how one slices it, that is a problematic situation.

A possible solution is to treat drug problems more as ones of public health, i.e., via treatment, rather than simply something that requires punishment:

In drug court programs, defendants charged with felony drug possession or other drug related crimes undergo an intensive program of treatment and testing supervised by a judge. If the defendant remains drug free for a year, the charges are dropped.

Surely if we can get people to stop using drugs through alternate means and save the taxpayers considerable sums of money, it is worth an open debate and the creation of new policies. Yet, Lindsey is right, a lot of voters will see this as nothing more than being “soft” on drug users. Such attitudes make it difficult to have an open discussion about these issues, and impedes the formulation of efficacious public policy.

It is difficult to look at the numbers (cost, number of prisoners, and drug use stats) and say that the current policies are actually working.

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Filed under: US Politics, Alabama Politics, War on Drugs | Comments/Trackbacks (2) | | Show Comments here
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