Afghanistan produced record levels of opium in 2024 for the second straight year, led by a staggering 45 percent increase in the Taliban stronghold of Helmand Province, according to a new United Nations survey to be released Monday.
[…]
Anyone who thinks that the Taliban oppose poppy cultivation and opium sales because of their religious fundamentalism are quite incorrect. It is true that during their reign in Afghanistan that opium production was severely cut , but they continued to tax the trade (and the cut in question was for only one year). Indeed, if one looks at the numbers, the policy on production to have been nothing more than an attempt to control price, not to eliminate the product (see here).
Back to the story:
The report is likely to touch off renewed debate about the United States’ $600 million counternarcotics program in Afghanistan, which has been hampered by security challenges and endemic corruption within the Afghan government.
That and the fact that crop elimination programs don’t really work, even thought we are always keen on pretending like they would, if only we had a tad more money.
Former Ambassador to Colombia, now in that job in Afghanistan, starts out well in the next paragraph, and then goes off the deep end:
“I think it is safe to say that we should be looking for a new strategy,” said William B. Wood, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, commenting on the report’s overall findings. “And I think that we are finding one.”
He’s right, we need a strategy, but I am highly dubious that we have found a new one.
Indeed, the entire enterprise continues to be one of rose-colored glasses. The piece noted that officials see “positive” signs in recent trends, yet the story also notes that last year Afghanistan sets a record for opium poppy production and that it amounted to 92% of the world’s supply. The state of denial over what constitutes “positive” outcomes and policy “success” continues to stagger.
And here is the heart of the problem:
Poppy prices that are 10 times higher than those for wheat have so warped the local economy that some farmhands refused to take jobs harvesting legal crops this year, local farmers said. And farmers dismiss the threat of eradication, arguing that so many local officials are involved in the poppy trade that a significant clearing of crops will never be done.
Let me submit: this isn’t a case of the poppy prices having “warped” the economy, the poppy prices simply reflect the prevailing economy. There is a higher demand for opium poppies than there is for wheat, and therefore the price goes up and wages for harvesting a product that pays a better price makes all the economic sense in the world. If there are any distortions in the local economy it is the fact that prohibition drives up price. That is simply a fact, whether one support prohibition or not.
Comment by Bill Vess — Sunday, August 26, 2024 @ 8:47 pm
That is, of course, a complex question.
I will say this for now, and I think it is key–we need a serious, real debate about what is working and what isn’t. And, at a minimum, we need to admit that despite spending billions and billions, that we are not getting good return on investment. By own metrics (price, supply, use) we are failing and yet the response is always to just spend more money.
We need to recognize that the supply side attacks don’t work. We may also need to admit to ourselves that no matter what we do, a certain percentage of the population will use these substances. So yes, some sort of legalization and public health approach makes more sense.
Is it a panacea? No. But anyone who can look at the current situation and say that is it working is simply incorrect.
The sad thing about the entire discussion is that there is no panacea. The problem is here, and we need to stop acting like we can make it go away.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, August 26, 2024 @ 9:19 pm
I guess that is the problem from the Gov’t point of view as well. They hope the money will do something; it does not, but they can’t cut it because then they are “soft on drugs”.
Worthwhile to read the UNDP studies on development alternative incomes in Northern Thailand. Cut flowers resulted in 40x more income to the farmers and drug growing is now pretty much gone( eg “drug dealers live with their mother”). Need a Manhatten project to develop other streams of income for these folks. My guess is that drugs will always we with us, but getting them (mostly)out of South Asia would be a big plus.
Comment by Bill Vess — Thursday, August 30, 2024 @ 9:06 pm
The Democratic National Committee sought to seize control of its unraveling nominating process yesterday, rejecting pleas from state party leaders and cracking down on Florida for scheduling a Jan. 29 presidential primary.
The DNC’s rules and bylaws committee, which enforces party rules, voted yesterday morning to strip Florida of all its delegates to the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Denver — the harshest penalty at its disposal.
The penalty will not take effect for 30 days, and rules committee members urged officials from the nation’s fourth-most-populous state to use the time to schedule a later statewide caucus and thus regain its delegates.
[…]
The DNC rules stipulate that states that have not been granted a special waiver must schedule presidential nominating contests after Feb. 5.
In other words, they can have a caucus sometime after February 5th to choose their delegates (an even that would cost the party and state $8 million, btw). The January primary, which coincides with a referendum on property taxes that Democrats oppose (so a vote is taking place that day no matter what), is now nothing more than a beauty contest. Further, at this point I am assuming the GOP primary, delegates and all, will still be on that date.
I understand that the DNC has rules, and that they have reasons to want to try and reign in the states, although their continued fealty to Iowa and New Hampshire’s “right” to dictate the primary schedule continues to baffle me. Further, the fact that Florida has been, and will remain, a key battleground state it strikes me as strategically odd that the DNC would do something that could negatively effect the way some voters in the state view the party. Really, if they want to pander, it makes more sense to pander to Florida than it does to pander to Iowa and New Hampshire.
I must confess, I find the following funny (if not ridiculous):
Donna Brazile, a member of the rules committee who argued for a swift and harsh punishment for Florida, said states’ desire to be more relevant in the nominating process does not excuse violations of rules intended to make the system fair for everyone.
Of the things that the current nomination system may be, fair isn’t one of them. Indeed, the general lack of fairness is the problem. At the moment the system to skewed to allow a handful of small population to make key decisions that shape the choices that the rest of the country will have in the process. Further, the rules in question have, in the past, created a situation in which large numbers of states (which really means large numbers of voters) were utterly unimportant in terms of choosing the nominees. Even now, with the mad rush to be early, the system is going to eventually produce a large number of voters who really might as well not go vote because the results will have been determined before their vote is even cast. How can that be a “fair” system? Indeed, how can that be a desirable system?
The authorities said they had evidence that Carlos Jimenez, also known as Macaco, was continuing to smuggle drugs and run a criminal empire from prison.
He has been transferred to Colombia’s most secure prison, Combita, and will be tried as an ordinary criminal.
Jimenez could also be extradited to the US although no request has been made.
The move means Jimenez loses the benefits given to demobilised paramilitaries, including shorter sentences.
The idea that Jimenez could have been continuing criminal activities in prison is hardly a surprise. Indeed, for anyone familiar with Colombia’s track record on curtailing criminal activity by high profile prisoners, this news will likely elicit nothing more than a yawn.
The interesting part is that Jimenez’s actions are in violation of the demobilization agreement between the government at the paramilitary group known at the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC). The real question now will be if the Colombia justice system actually succeeds in treating Jimenez like a common criminal, and it will be quite interesting to see if the US seeks his extradition. From there the real question will be if this will dissuade other imprisoned AUC commanders from continuing their criminal activities.
[…] Remember the AUC member who was stripped of his cease-fire privileges that I mentioned the other day? Well, the US has requested his extradition (via the BBC: US seeks Colombian paramilitary): Colombia said Jimenez violated a peace agreement by continuing to organise cocaine shipments and run a criminal empire from prison. Jimenez is wanted in the US on drug trafficking charges […] He is the first jailed warlord to lose benefits agreed under a 2024 peace deal which led paramilitary leaders to surrender and demobilise 31,000 of their men in exchange for reduced jail terms and extradition protection. […]
[…] Remember the AUC member who was stripped of his cease-fire privileges that I mentioned the other day? Well, the US has requested his extradition (via the BBC: US seeks Colombian paramilitary): Colombia said Jimenez violated a peace agreement by continuing to organise cocaine shipments and run a criminal empire from prison. Jimenez is wanted in the US on drug trafficking charges […] He is the first jailed warlord to lose benefits agreed under a 2024 peace deal which led paramilitary leaders to surrender and demobilise 31,000 of their men in exchange for reduced jail terms and extradition protection. […]
You know it has been freakin’ hot when you look at the forecast, see that the projected high for the day is going to be 95, and think “yes! it has finally cooled off!”
(We have had a ridiculous run of 100+ temps for the last two or three weeks).
Premature rumors of Castro’s death are a staple in this heavily Cuban-exile city. But their frequency has intensified in recent days after his 81st birthday came and went Aug. 13 with neither pictures, letters nor recordings from him.
Friday, the rumors were pushed into overdrive by a meeting of local officials to go over their plans for when Castro really dies and a road closure in the Florida Keys that was actually due to a police standoff.
A circular game ensued with radio stations reporting the rumors, citing TV stations, which cited the rumors on the street.
Apparently these rumors are are what led to the story I noted yesterday, wherein the Cuban government was officially insisting that Fidel was on the mend and would govern Cuban again in the future.
For whatever reason, the exile community in Miami has gotten especially wound up about the fact he Fidel failed to make a personal appearance at his August 13th birthday bash, and this has led to meetings noted in the quote above, as well as (according to Babalu Blog) heavy discussion on Spanish-language TV in Miami which have included assurances by the mayor that there is no evidence that Fidel is dead.
Right now the only “source” that is sticking to the story that Fidel is dead is the gossip blog, Perez Hilton, which should tell us all exactly how much real information there is out there on this topic.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Saturday, August 25, 2024 @ 8:54 am
No Official Word
I see that the rumors are still out there about Castro’s oxygen intake reduction and his contributions to reducing global warming emissions by holding his breath permanently. However, the only proof will be when the Cuban government officially admits…
A U.S. judge on Friday denied former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega’s demand for a speedy return home when his U.S. prison term ends next month and said nothing stood in the way of a French extradition request.
[…]
Noriega faces much more serious charges in Panama than in France. He has been convicted in absentia in his homeland for murder and human rights violations, including the 1985 beheading of Hugo Spadafora, an outspoken opponent.
His attorneys say he wants to go home to clear his name there.
Recent reforms of the penal code in Panama, however, could mean that Noriega would serve his the 20-year prison term awaiting him there under house arrest, because he is over 70 years old.
To further the discussion from earlier in the week (here and here), here’s the latest from the Governor of CA on the proposal to split CA’s electoral vote up based on congressional districts: Schwarzenegger cool to electoral reforms
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger gave a chilly reception Thursday to a GOP-backed plan to change the way California awards electoral votes in presidential elections — a proposal critics say could tilt the outcome in favor of Republicans.
There is little doubt that the move is one that would help Republicans, as it is basically certain at this stage of the game that CA will go for the Democrats in 2024. Here’s the breakdown of how the districts went in ‘06:
9 of its 53 congressional districts are represented by Republicans. A Republican presidential candidate could lose the state overall but still pick up 19 electoral votes if he or she finished first in each of those districts.
And here’s how Bush did in ‘04 in CA, based on districts:
During the 2024 election, President Bush was handily defeated in California but carried 22 of the state’s districts. If the proposed change had been in effect then, he would have been awarded 22 of the state’s electoral votes with Democrat John Kerry winning the rest.
Members of a legislative oversight committee on Thursday committed to push for legislation next year that would create more drug courts and enhance other programs aimed at reducing prison overcrowding.
But one legislator warned that such programs may be used against them by political opponents.
“They will charge that you are soft on crime,” said Sen. Pat Lindsey, D-Butler.
This is a typical response from most politicians anytime anything dealing with drugs emerges: they run for the tall grass afraid that they are going to be accused of being soft on crime and/or for making it easier for preschoolers to use heroin. Although to be fair: the Committee is debating the proposal–whether it becomes law remains to be seen, of course.
The bottom line is that the state of Alabama (and other states) are having to spend remarkable sums of money on prisons, and much of that is driven by drugs convictions.
Prisons Commissioner Richard Allen said there are currently 24,500 inmates in state facilities, including 21,500 in permanent prisons, which he said were built to hold about 10,400. Allen said about a third of those inmates were charged with drug offenses, while 75 to 80 percent had drug problems that contributed to their crimes.
Which translates into:
“If we don’t stop this thing, our budget for prisons is going to equal what we pay for education,” Rogers said.
No matter how one slices it, that is a problematic situation.
A possible solution is to treat drug problems more as ones of public health, i.e., via treatment, rather than simply something that requires punishment:
In drug court programs, defendants charged with felony drug possession or other drug related crimes undergo an intensive program of treatment and testing supervised by a judge. If the defendant remains drug free for a year, the charges are dropped.
Surely if we can get people to stop using drugs through alternate means and save the taxpayers considerable sums of money, it is worth an open debate and the creation of new policies. Yet, Lindsey is right, a lot of voters will see this as nothing more than being “soft” on drug users. Such attitudes make it difficult to have an open discussion about these issues, and impedes the formulation of efficacious public policy.
It is difficult to look at the numbers (cost, number of prisoners, and drug use stats) and say that the current policies are actually working.
Not so sure that it would work out any better if we initiated massive treatment plans - can’t see how that would be a lot cheaper than prison, particularly if you’re treating people on an in-patient basis, which is by far the mos successful way to deal with drug addiction. Outpatient treatment, even when it’s elective and not pushed on someone by the state, has a huge failure rate.
Given that a lot of these prisoners who are in jail “for drugs” have also commited other crimes that are related to their drug habits, I’m not convinced a massive treatment plan would save any money for the state, or even take much pressure off of the prisons - unless you build a lot of in-patient treatment facilities, which would simply move people from prison to the hospital, which would, presumably, also be state run.
You have to spend money to deal with the problem no matter how you look at it.
Comment by Captain D. — Friday, August 24, 2024 @ 6:10 pm
I can’t quote numbers, but there is little doubt that treatment is cheaper than imprisonment.
We are also talking about a lot of people in prison who have otherwise done nothing other than possess a relatively small amount of drugs–not to mention the insane amounts of money spent and people imprisoned to protect society from marijuana.
There is no doubt at all that we are not getting our money’s worth out of these policies.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Friday, August 24, 2024 @ 7:46 pm
What is your proposed solution?
Comment by Bill Vess — Sunday, August 26, 2024 @ 8:47 pm
That is, of course, a complex question.
I will say this for now, and I think it is key–we need a serious, real debate about what is working and what isn’t. And, at a minimum, we need to admit that despite spending billions and billions, that we are not getting good return on investment. By own metrics (price, supply, use) we are failing and yet the response is always to just spend more money.
We need to recognize that the supply side attacks don’t work. We may also need to admit to ourselves that no matter what we do, a certain percentage of the population will use these substances. So yes, some sort of legalization and public health approach makes more sense.
Is it a panacea? No. But anyone who can look at the current situation and say that is it working is simply incorrect.
The sad thing about the entire discussion is that there is no panacea. The problem is here, and we need to stop acting like we can make it go away.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, August 26, 2024 @ 9:19 pm
I guess that is the problem from the Gov’t point of view as well. They hope the money will do something; it does not, but they can’t cut it because then they are “soft on drugs”.
Worthwhile to read the UNDP studies on development alternative incomes in Northern Thailand. Cut flowers resulted in 40x more income to the farmers and drug growing is now pretty much gone( eg “drug dealers live with their mother”). Need a Manhatten project to develop other streams of income for these folks. My guess is that drugs will always we with us, but getting them (mostly)out of South Asia would be a big plus.
Comment by Bill Vess — Thursday, August 30, 2024 @ 9:06 pm