… well, at least as a Democrat.
Political Arithmetik has the details, which surprisingly include a collapse for the Senator among moderate and conservative likely Democratic primary voters.
“Leaverman” will run as an independent if he loses Tuesday’s primary, given that Connecticut lacks a “sore loser” law.
If he then wins in November–as is likely–maybe he will hold the balance of power in the Senate, giving a whole new meaning to “Joementum.”
Is it really all that likely he would win in November if he loses the primary? Especially by a large margin? I know that at least some have said that they support him in the primary but will support whoever wins the primary in the general.
Comment by Gary and the Samoyeds — Thursday, August 3, 2024 @ 4:52 pm
Well, the margin doesn’t matter. If he gets one more vote than anyone else in the race, he’s Senator.
I don’t have the reference now, but there have been polls that show him way ahead (even with over 50%). Of course, November is a long way off. And, if he is losing moderate and conservative Democratic voters to Lamont in the primary race, yes, Lamont may retain them in November.
The main advantage Lieberman has as an independent–aside from being an incumbent Senator–is that the Republican candidate is not a very strong candidate. In other words, Lieberman may get some Republican votes, if only to stop Lamont, and he’ll probably win the unaffiliated voters by a very wide margin.
I won’t venture a prediction, but I will say that I’ll be fairly surprised if Lieberman is not still a Senator next year. The question is, with whom will he caucus?
Comment by Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) — Thursday, August 3, 2024 @ 5:48 pm
[…] ecticut Senate race
By Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) @ 12:43 pm
Continuing a theme from yesterday, let’s look at a poll by Quinnipac on Connecticut’s Democratic primary for t […]
Pingback by PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » More on the Connecticut Senate race — Friday, August 4, 2024 @ 12:49 pm