Continuing a theme from yesterday, let’s look at a poll by Quinnipac on Connecticut’s Democratic primary for the US Senate seats:
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Lamont 54%
Lieberman 41%.
The linked story also says:
Lamont supporters are touting the notion that with a big enough Lieberman loss on Tuesday — if Lamont gets 60 percent of the vote, for instance — the senator will be forced to yield to pressure from party leaders and drop his independent bid.
That sounds like wishful thinking by Lamont’s camp, to me. However, if the interest groups that currently support Lieberman were to defect upon a convincing primary win by Lamont, then Liberman could find himself without the support needed to carry on his sore-loser independent campaign. Still, with a very weak Republican candidate, there would be little risk from a continued Lieberman campaign; that is, little risk that his independent bid would tip the seat to the Republicans. Consider what the same poll shows if a three-way general election were held today:
if Lieberman were to run as an independent, he would get 51% of the vote to Lamont’s 27%. The Republican challenger, Alan Schlesinger, registered 9% in that poll.
The party registration numbers make a race between the two Democrats in the general election viable: 50% nonpartisan, 30%D, 20%R. (That sums to 100%; does Connecticut law protect the associational rights of only two state-sponsored parties?)
As an ex-Connectican (also continuing a theme from earlier on this blog), I hope that you’re wrong and that Lieberman accepts defeat in the primary.
Up till now, it has been costless for Democrats to pledge their support to him, but after the primary, I think you’ll see some more defections, some of them probably more subtle than others. (I’m thinking of Clinton.) There may be some political debts (and debts of friendship) to pay before the primary, but afterwards, if the constellation of the Senate is at stake, folks will reconsider.
The summer is long. And a three-way race would assuredly push Lamont’s negatives up, as both Lieberman and the Republicans get their crack at defining him. Now he’s primarily the anti-incumbent candidate. We might call Lieberman a “superincumbent” given his vigorous attacks on critics of the incumbent President.
Comment by Brett Marston (guestblogger) — Friday, August 4, 2024 @ 1:58 pm
Good points, Brett. You may be right about the pressure that “superincumbent” Lieberman will face. Still, with poll numbers like these, I don’t see why he would drop out.
Could the Republican be a serious threat to win the 1/3 of votes that he would need? If so, then the dynamic is very different. Lieberman could always pull out in September or October, if Schlesinger is rising in the polls, and endorse Lamont in a dramatic gesture of party unity.
Maybe in doing so, he could also endorse lifting the state’s restrictions on third-party lines on the ballot, implementing a “sore loser” law, and adopting instant runoff voting. OK, now I am really dreaming…
Comment by Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) — Friday, August 4, 2024 @ 3:55 pm
Of course, Connecticut law doesn’t even protect the associational rights of the Democratic Party. No state party organization would fail to renominate someone as popular as Lieberman with the state’s electorate, especially knowing that he would be positioned to cut a lot of deals for his constituents.
But, hey, if the Democrats want to ape the Republicans’ stupid game of killing off all their moderates in some misguided effort to maintain ideological purity, who am I to stop them?
Comment by Chris Lawrence — Friday, August 4, 2024 @ 7:12 pm
Connecticut Primary Is D-Day For Joe Lieberman And The Democratic Party (UPDATED)
This has been reposted from yesterday at the top of this site due to interest and an update.
Tuesday is truly “D-Day” f…
Trackback by The Moderate Voice — Monday, August 7, 2024 @ 1:34 am