~Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2024 election~
~If Sabato can use a crystal ball, why can’t I use a toaster?~
General News, Poll, Commentary and Bloggage
- Blognetnews has a cool map by which one can navigate the Blogospheric discussion of the Super Tuesday states.
- CQ Politics has a video run-down of Super Tuesday.
- Zogby’s run-down of key Tuesday here.
- Charles Franklin: Super Tuesday Endgame
- Marc Ambinder: What The Polls Say About Feb. 5.
- CNN: A super guide for Super Tuesday
- Reuters: In White House race, it’s delegates that count
- Via the NYT: Republicans Battle for Votes and Money in California
- Lee Sigelman @ The Monkey Cage: The $$ Campaign
- Greg Weeks: The Latino vote
- OTB: California Tightening, Routs Everywhere Else
Checking the Bread: Movement Since the Last ToM
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Barack Obama |
Dough is on the rise |
John McCain |
Dough is on the rise. |
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Hillary Clinton |
Dough is on the rise |
Mitt Romney |
Getting darker. |
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Mike Gravel |
Hey, what’s that at the back of the fridge? |
Mike Huckabee |
Getting darker. |
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Ron Paul |
Not even suitable for croutons. |
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Gazing into the Polished Stainless Steel of the Toaster.
Los Elefantes: As we look towards Super Tuesday, it is quite clear that the race on the Democratic side is more unsettled than the Republican one. McCain enters tomorrow’s contest the clear front runner and is leading heavily in most polls. McCain has wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida while Romney only has the state of his birth (and where his father served as governor), Michigan, and handful of minor caucus states (Wyoming, Nevada and Maine) and there is no reason to suspect that that basic trend is about to reverse itself. In other words, McCain has won the states that count (save Iowa) and Romney’s wins have been second tier at best. The polls suggest that Romney can do well in California, but given that the delegates are allocated by congressional district and statewide, Romney will be unlikely to take all of the state’s delegates even if he has a stellar night. While the magic number won’t be reached tomorrow, the odds are it will be quite clear who the prohibitive favorite will be, and that will be McCain. At that point the process will become largely academic, as Romney will not be mathematically eliminated, but would find himself needing a truly miraculous turn of events to capture the nomination. The only question at that point will be: how much of his own bread will he be willing to spend in fending off his eventual toastness?
The most remarkable and fascinating aspect of the entire process on the GOP side is the ongoing debate over McCain’s conservatism. Some example of the conversation are as follows (and in most cases the comments left are more interesting than the posts in question):
- John Cole asks what makes Romney more conservative than McCain.
- Rachel Lucas wonders why the discussion of McCain isn’t more objective.
- CNN: In letter to Limbaugh, Bob Dole defends McCain
- OTB: Curing McCain Derangement Syndrome
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Crooked Timber: Liberal Senators (McCain is discussed in the comments thread)
And so forth…
It will be most interesting to see how the GOP coalition pulls itself together, as part of the party’s November hopes hinge on a vigorous Republican turnout.
Los Burros: On the Democratic side, it still appear that Clinton is in the lead, but given the usage of non winner-take-all rules in Democratic contests, coming in second could still mean a lot of delegates across the country. Indeed, in some districts in California, coming in second come mean the same number of delegates as coming in first. As such, expect no closure on the Democratic side after tomorrow.
In many ways, tomorrow is the end of the GOP contest, but for the Democrats it is the start of the final showdown.
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The bag is currently empty. |
John McCain Yes, for the first time this campaign season, the Toastmaster sees Wonderbread in the toaster’s shiny stainless steel surface. The GOP nomination is now McCain’s to lose.
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Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton |
Mitt Romney The nomination is still a possibility for Romney, but the probability is low.
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Mike Huckabee Yes, from stale white bread one week to burnt toast the next. Huckabee still has a shot at some southern wins, but clearly he must know that he is running, at best, for the chance to be veepable. |
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Mike Gravel |
Ron Paul Even with his bags o’ cash, Dr. Paul has now hit the crumbly stage of the campaign. Heck, his internet-based groupies don’t even seem to have the will to comment any longer.
James Joyner @ OTB notes: Ron Paul Flatlines. He looks at the polling numbers and notes what most of us understood from the beginning: Paul’s support came from a small, stable and passionate minority. This is easily demonstrated by the fact that even as other candidates have dropped out of the race, Paul’s basic level of support has stayed steady—i.e., he has picked up no support from the exit of others. |
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February 4th, 2024 at 8:44 pm
[...] Click [...]
February 4th, 2024 at 10:58 pm
[...] Professor Hansen has more as does today’s Web Recon and the amazingly amusing Dr. Steven Taylor. [...]
February 5th, 2024 at 10:27 am
[...] A MUST READ TODAY of all days. Political scientist Steven Taylor’s Toast-O-Meter. Who’s baking nicely…and who looks like toast? [...]
February 5th, 2024 at 12:05 pm
By the way, it is not just California. A lot of the states have even numbers of delegates in many of their districts.
The non-winner-take-all is a good idea. But having small, even numbers of delegates per district is not so smart.
Still, in all cases, just over one third of the Dem delegates are allocated statewide proportionally. So, in that tier, even small differences in the margins are consequential. (About one delegate for every 1.25% increment of the vote in California.)
On the other hand, Republican rules–winner-take-all and, in some states such as California, same number of delegates in every district–greatly overrepresent voters who happen to have mostly Democratic neighbors, and will give the bulk of the delegates even to a candidate with either well under half the votes, or with narrow margins over the runner-up in the district or state.
February 5th, 2024 at 12:24 pm
Yes–it will be most interesting to see what happens in some of the very Democratic districts in the GOP primary. In at least one LA area district, I think that the likely GOP voter pool is less than 10,000.
February 5th, 2024 at 1:03 pm
Live Blogging Super Tuesday
10:50 AM: Trolling the blogosphere, I spot Steven Taylor's always funny and insightful Toast-o-Meter's pre-Super Tuesday edition. 10:42 AM: Andrew Sullivan says that the parties rules on delegates reflect "the core traits of …
February 5th, 2024 at 1:48 pm
[...] Posted by Stephen Green on 05 Feb 2024 at 12:48 pm Ron Paul: Not even suitable for croutons. Bookmark: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. [...]
February 8th, 2024 at 9:32 pm
[...] Checking the Bread: Movement Since the Last ToM [...]