Texas Toast or French Toast? Tracking the race to the White House.

This Week’s Toast-O-Meter reading

Many analysts have declared that the situation, if taken in historical terms, looks quite favorable to Kerry. Mostly there has been a great deal of discussion about “the rules� (what the horse race figures usually look like at this point for a president seeking re-election, “re-elect� numbers, “right-track/wrong-track� numbers, approval ratings, a number of things). Now, the bag is mixed: some of “the rules� favor Kerry, other favor Bush. However, one thesis is that people make up their mind on the incumbent first, meaning that the undecided tend to break for the challenger at the last minute. Given the tightness of the polls, this scenario would favor Kerry.

In other words, historical trends would tend to indicate that President Bush’s support is largely locked in, and that Kerry has more growth potential. Since “growth potential� in this race could mean a few percentage points, if this theory holds Kerry is in really good shape.

However, for a variety of reasons I am not convinced that “the rulesâ€? hold in this cycle. For one thing, the clear polarization of the electorate is unusual, historically speaking, and the extremely small number of “undecidedsâ€? is an unusual phenomenon as well–especially given that the numbers in question have been steady from very early on in this election.

Further, I don’t think that some of the current analysis takes into account the heavily back-loaded aspect of the Republican campaign. There are three sets of events that have yet to happen that I think will have important effects on this race: the Republican National Convention (prediction: the “rule� that says that the incumbent only gets 2/3rds of the bounce of the challenger will be broken this year), the 9/11 anniversary and the debates.

While it is true that Kerry’s numbers have improved on issues of national security, if one looks at the Pew number cited below, it is only the hard-core Democratic base who see Kerry as the candidate who will best deal with terrorism. Further, while the Kerry camp argues that the DNC made the case that Kerry could be a credible commander-in-chief, I am thinking that the RNC and the 9/11 memorial will reinforce the image of Bush as CinC. Further, someone needs to put Kerry’s Senate career on a milk cartoon, but it is currently missing in action.

This week’s reading of the Toast-O-Meter shows a tie, after two weeks of a slight edge for Bush—call this Toast within the margin of error:

And before you feast on the individual departments of this week’s toasty tome, WaPo has some great overview charts on this race that are worth a look.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

• McCain campaigns with president in Florida (Bush’s 24th trip to that state since assuming office).
• Bush, McCain Campaign in N.M., Arizona.
• Kerry Stumps for N.M. Votes.
• Front-Porch Chat: Birth of a Kerry Campaign Tactic.

AD WARS

• Bush Ad Assails Kerry on Intelligence.
• Company Corners Market on Political Ads.

Brewing Issues

• Kerry Talks Prescription Drugs.
• Bush Says National Sales Tax Worth Considering. My guess is that this goes nowhere. I am simply surprised he even uttered the words.
• Bush Challenges Kerry on Iraq Withdrawal.
• Mocking Drowns Out Kerry’s Explanation of Iraq Vote.
• Gay Marriage Becomes a Swing Issue With Pull.
• Oil Above $46 and Far Above OPEC’s Ceiling.
• Stephen Green discusses the potential political implications of the McGreevey situation to the presidential elections.

POLLING

• Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush in Florida.
• Kerry Widens Lead in California, Poll Finds
• Bush’s approval numbers ticked above 50% this week.
• The Pew Research Center poll: Bush Tops Kerry As a Strong Leader
  

  • Bush tops Kerry on decisiveness and leadership.
  • Kerry tops Bush on domestic issues such as health care and the economy.
  • ” Bush has a 10-point, 49-39 percent advantage over the Massachusetts senator on the issue of handling terrorism. They were even on handling Iraq, and Kerry was favored by slightly more on the handling of foreign policy”.
  • ” When asked which candidate is more likely to change his mind, 47 percent said Kerry and 28 percent said Bush. In May, 42 percent said Kerry is more likely to change his mind.”.
  • Two-thirds of Americans rate the economy as “only fair” or “poor” and 55 percent said they think jobs are difficult to find in their home area.

    Just four in 10_ 42 percent — approve of Bush’s handling of the economy, while 52 percent disapprove. “

• Kerry promises more money for national parks.
• Kerry Promotes Energy Independence Plan.
• Edwards Promises Aid to U.S. Farmers
• Bush Promises Quick Hurricane Relief. This is one of those deals where being President is to one’s advantage. Of course, if relief isn’t “quick” (and such things are subjective) then such a promise could easily backfire.

WHEN PANDER BEARS ATTACK!!

• Kerry Criticizes U.S. Plan to Send Nuclear Waste to Nevada
  

  Seizing on an issue that this state’s Democratic senator calls “the most important to the people of Nevada,” Senator John Kerry vowed Tuesday not to send nuclear waste to Yucca Mountain and accused President Bush of breaking a similar promise he made four years ago.

  In a state that Mr. Bush won by four percentage points in 2024, Mr. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, hammered at the administration’s support for the nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas.

  “Yucca Mountain to me is a symbol of the recklessness and arrogance with which they are willing to proceed with respect to the safety issues and concerns of the American people,” Mr. Kerry said of the administration.

• Bush vows to fight for funds for Oregon
  

  Campaigning in a state he lost by less than 7,000 votes four years ago, President Bush weighed in with support for Oregon on Friday, saying his administration will fight for federal money that would boost the state’s economy. After repeated requests, Bush says the White House is supporting $15 million in proposed congressional appropriations to deepen a 100-mile channel from Portland to the Pacific Ocean.

• Kerry looking for votes among sportsmen who once shunned Democrats.