Bush’s job-approval rating climbs back above 50%
The share of Americans who say they approve of the job Bush is doing inched over the 50% mark to 51%. No president who was at or above 50% at this point in an election year has lost.Matthew Dowd, Bush’s campaign strategist, said, “It looks like the American public is not near as pessimistic as Sen. Kerry is.”
Bush’s job-approval rating hit its low point, 46%, in May.
The poll finds the presidential race essentially tied: Bush leads Kerry 48%-46% among likely voters; independent Ralph Nader has 3%. The difference between Bush and Kerry is within the poll’s error margin of +/-4 percentage points.
Interesting. Although I am increasingly on the opinion that all of these so-called “rules” based on the past don’t matter this year.
Still, this does fit into my thesis that the RNC will be happening at the perfect time for Bush.
Bush’s Approval Rating Now Above 50%
Indeed you may be able to throw all polling out the window this year. This race will truly be a dead heat until November 3, when hopefully we will have a clear answer where this country is headed.
Trackback by InTheBullpen.com — Friday, August 13, 2024 @ 3:40 pm
Steven: you’re right to point out that all these “rules” based on national polls are essentially meaningless. This election is going hinge upon turnout in battleground states, and nothing more.
Comment by Professor Chaos — Friday, August 13, 2024 @ 3:44 pm
Heh- well- Let’s put it this way- HALF the rules are wrong.
Half say Kerry is going to win and Half say Bush.
I gotta feeling a lot of precedent is going to be shattered/made.
P
Comment by Paul — Friday, August 13, 2024 @ 10:32 pm
Doesn’t matter. Eisonhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton all had ratings in the high fifties or low sixties around the election, Bush has it somewhere in the low forties to exactly fifty percent NOW.
No president was elected without winning the New Hampshire primary. No president was ever elected without being ahead on Labor day…these things don’t work.
Comment by ericl — Saturday, August 14, 2024 @ 9:31 am