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Saturday, October 30, 2004
By Steven L. Taylor

The Democrats have sent Al Gore and the Reps have sent Cheney.

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By Steven L. Taylor

49-48

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By Steven L. Taylor

Breaking to Bush?

In a two-way trial heat, excluding Nader, Bush/Cheney would defeat Kerry/Edwards 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. Last week Bush led 48 to 47 in the two-way contest.

The poll finds the race closer among registered voters. Forty-eight percent of registered voters would vote for Bush and 44 percent would vote for Kerry. One percent would vote for Nader. In a two-way race, 48 percent would vote for Bush/Cheney and 45 percent would vote for Kerry/Edwards. The worse news for Kerry: in the last lap of the race, the number of %u201Cpersuadables%u201D is falling. Now, 9 percent of registered voters say they haven%u2019t made up
their minds, down from 13 percent last week. And just 6 percent of likely voters say they haven%u2019t decided.

Hat tip: Paul at Wizbang.

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By Steven L. Taylor

Via the NYT: Colorado: As the Race Tightens, Enthusiasm for a Ballot Proposal Wanes

In mid-September, a poll by Ciruli Associates, a nonpartisan policy research firm in Denver, found that 51 percent of voters surveyed supported Amendment 36. By last week, support had fallen to 36 percent, with 49 percent saying they were opposed. The firm’s president’s, Floyd Ciruli, predicted that Amendment 36 would lose by a two-to-one margin.

Supporters of the measure say that most polls, including Ciruli’s, show about one in five voters still undecided, and that people often forget to vote on ballot initiatives, leaving open the possibility of a last-minute fluctuation in fortunes.

I have always thought that this idea was one that would sound good at first, and then fade in the minds of voters. This seems to be the pattern in question.

I certainly think that it is a bad idea for the state.

Hat tip: Betsy Newmark.

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By Steven L. Taylor

The The Glittering Eye and Paul at Wizbang are trying to grok the meaning of the latest polling trends.

gEye thinks that he sees periodic jump for Kerry in as a result of Sunday talk damage control by Camp Kerry. Perhaps, but on balance the long-term trend is for tracking polls to favor the Democrats over weekends, so that may be what he is seeing. He also thinks that the over trend is Bush. Of course, as I noted the other day, while the RCP graph makes the Kerry-Bush gap look large, the fact of the matter is that that scale is so small it amplies that gap.

Paul looks at the WaPo tracking poll and thinks that Kerry’s lead was the result of the initial al-QaQaa story and the susequent flip back to Bush illustrates the expiration of that story’s power. Again, given that the Kerry surge started as weekend numbers were included, that may be the explanation. Further, the variation is so small (the biggest gap in the last week has been 3 points) it may be that that is nothing more than MOE variations. While it is likely that the al-QaQaa story is affecting voters, one wonders how many it can actualyl sway.

The bottom line for any and all analyses of these numbers: the margins are so small, I am not that any given variation that is within the MOE can be considered significant–nor can it likely be explained by any specific event or issue.

Update: Another thought occurred to me in regards to the WaPo tracking poll: the Kerry surge actually starts well before the explosives story. Further, given that it is three-day tracking poll, the full effect of the explosives story doesn’t register in the poll until later in the week. Really, by the time the story was fully in the consciousness of the news-consuming pubic, the numbers tunr a bit more Bush-ish. No, I don’t think that the surge Kerry got early the week of the 25th is attributable to the explosives story.

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By Steven L. Taylor

ABC’s The Noteproffers the following possible impacts:

4. Even poker-faced Republicans believe in this equation: OBL tape = more focus on “who will keep you safer?” = Bush advantage = Bush win.

5. A sliver of Democratic strategists believe: OBL tape aggressive (continued) Kerry attack on Bush record on OBL a break or two = Kerry advantage = likely Kerry win

6. Most Democrat strategists, however believe one of two things:

a. OBL tape Mommy Party status BC04 aggressiveness tightness of the race (3) above = Bush advantage = bad feeling

or

b. OBL tape Mommy Party status BC04 aggressiveness closeness of race (3) above the public mind about OBL among voters who matter Kerry pushback = a wash = no one knows = possible Kerry win

That pretty much covers it, expect what I suggested yesterday:

OBL tape + Kerry’s debate insistence that WoT=OBL+Bush 2002 “not concerned” remark=advantage Kerry.

I think that #4 list and 6a are actually the more likely, but would not dimiss the “helps Kerry” possibility entirely.

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By Steven L. Taylor

Via the LAT: Un ‘Sabado Gigante’ for Bush, Kerry

Tonight, President Bush and Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry will be guest stars on “Sabado Gigante” (Giant Saturday), a variety show that airs across the United States on the Univision cable network. It holds the distinction of being the longest-running television program in the Americas.

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By Steven L. Taylor

Here’s the latest round of new linkage to PoliBlog. Each has been added to The List.

If you have linked me, but have not received a reciporcal link, just drop me an e-mail.

Want a link at PoliBlog? Here’s my link policy.

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By Steven L. Taylor

Writes Jack Shafer in Slate:Al-Qaqaa Reconsidered – The competition throws stones at the New York Times scoop

That there are two sides to every story is not something that would automatically occur to the man who reads only one newspaper. If you’ve followed the Al-Qaqaa news only in the New York Times, where it broke, you might believe that the United States committed an unspeakable blunder in failing to guard the 380 tons of high explosives it knew Saddam harbored in the Al-Qaqaa weapons complex. The Times’ Oct. 25 scoop and its Oct. 27 and Oct. 29 follow-ups give that impression. But if you’ve consumed the Washington Post alongside the Times, your certainty about an American miscue would have evaporated by now. The Post’s Oct. 27 catch-up piece and its Oct. 29, Page One naysayer, “Munitions Issue Dwarfs the Big Picture,” portray the missing munitions as an overplayed story.

Journalists live to knock down what their competitors write: Nobody at the Gazette ever made his mark by re-reporting and confirming what the Bugle published. But the Post isn’t zigging on the Al-Qaqaa story simply because the Times zagged. It’s whittling away at the Times account, as I noted earlier this week, because the Times scoop raises questions about Al-Qaqaa that Times editors should have answered before they sent the scoop to print.

The bottom line:

always remember to read more than one newspaper a day.

Indeed.

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By Steven L. Taylor

Kerry Has One-Point Lead Over Bush – Reuters Poll

Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday.

In re: rookie voters:

The Massachusetts senator had a 48-41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.

And in re: the battleground states:

Bush gained ground in some of the critical swing states that will decide who accumulates the 270 electoral votes needed to win, leading in six of the 10 battleground states surveyed in a series of Reuters/Zogby state tracking polls.

Bush led in Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico and Nevada. Kerry led in Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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