Via the AP: Iowa poll puts Clinton atop in key state
Hillary Rodham Clinton has taken the lead among Democratic presidential candidates in an Iowa poll, an encouraging sign of progress toward overcoming a big hurdle in the race.
[…]
Clinton was supported by 29 percent of the 399 respondents to the poll conducted Oct. 1-3, compared with 21 percent in May.
The margin of error was 4.9% and yes, that is an awfully small sample.
Iowa is rather difficult to poll, insofar as the nature of the caucus is such that it allows for last minute bargaining that can change a voter’s choice. As such, predictions are hard to make.
Still, if Clinton can win Iowa, she would be almost unstoppable. At a minimum, Edwards has to have a good showing, if not a win, to be able to even make a claim to be a significant candidate.
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[…] Among the sites that I think does a pretty good job of looking at things in a logical fashion is Poliblog. Among today’s entries is an article by Dr. Steven Taylor that states: ……Still, if Clinton can win Iowa, she would be almost unstoppable. At a minimum, Edwards has to have a good showing, if not a win, to be able to even make a claim to be a significant candidate. […]
Pingback by Moonage Political Webdream » Blog Archive » The Democrat ramifications of Iowa? — Monday, October 8, 2024 @ 8:00 am
Is that a small sample? I mean, they use 1000 or less for nationwide polls.
Seems to me it’s Iowa that is small, not the sample.
Comment by MSS — Monday, October 8, 2024 @ 11:06 am