The PoliBlog

The Collective
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via CNN’s Political Ticker: Thompson skids while Romney, Paul climb in N.H. poll

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.


…the former star of the television drama “Law and Order” has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November’s survey.

By contrast, Romney’s support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State.

Perhaps one of the most interesting questions out of NH at this point is: can Paul bust into double-digits?

Anyone surprised by Thompson’s slide? Well, I’m not. (Also: here, here and here). I have long considered him to be the Rorschach Candidate who initially appeared to be all things to all people, but who would fade once he actually hit the campaign trail. Indeed, I asked back in July the following question: Are Fred Thompson’s Best Days on the Campaign Trail Already Passed? and think that it is very likely that indeed, yes, Fred’s best days in this campaign came before he actually officially announced his bid.

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  1. I agree with your assessment completely. I think this is a vanity campaign for Thompson and it ain’t turnin’ out so well.

    Comment by Jan — Tuesday, November 20, 2007 @ 10:53 am

  2. Well, it appears Mr. Thompson is not Christ reborn the reanimated corpse of Ronald Reagan, after all. What a shock.

    Comment by Patrick — Tuesday, November 20, 2007 @ 11:59 am

  3. Thompson Behind Paul, Huckabee in CNN Poll

    The wheels continue to fall off Fred Thompson’s campaign, with a dismal showing in the latest CNN New Hampshire poll.
    Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hamps…

    Trackback by Outside The Beltway | OTB — Tuesday, November 20, 2007 @ 4:58 pm

  4. In reality the Reprublican race is narrowing to 2 contenders — the Mitt and Rudy show. Sure, McCain and Thompson are still there and Paul is still on his vanity tour with Huckabee still trying to get noticed. However in reality it’s Romney and Guliani who matter.

    Romney controls the early states and Guliani controls the later big ones. I’d bet on Romney right now, but not much. Beyond the first 2 they just don’t matter

    Comment by Buckland — Tuesday, November 20, 2007 @ 5:07 pm

  5. […] Cross-posted from PoliBlog: […]

    Pingback by Political Mavens » Fred Lags in NH (and I am Shocked, Shocked!) — Tuesday, November 20, 2007 @ 5:45 pm

  6. My questions concerning Paul in NH have been not whether he can hit 10%, but whether he can snowball in time to win the state seeing as how little time there is left there. Will he hit a support ceiling? Will he not peak in time? His principles and policies both appeal to NH, but electability and name recognition have been biting at him.

    Now that he’s getting some poll power the (state) electability issue slowly gets resolved with some, which in turn convices more, etc. And his money-making ability has let him get advertising out to get up name recognition. He recently sent out a full color 12 page mailer to every registered (R) in the state, and he is on TV and radio. It’s obviously getting results.

    An interesting twist on this is who is Paul eating support from? Fiscally it would seem to be McCain, and in terms of federalist support it would be Thompson. Romney, who is the current leader in NH, doesn’t seem to be threatened much (at this point) by Paul (except perhaps by strong integrity voters or pro-life voters) which is what worries me. As a Paul supporter the guy I want to see come down is the leader of course. While playing a spoiler may get more play for his message within the political world (and in the minds of future voters and leaders), I would like to see him win it. I also don’t like to see McCain suffering the most from Paul, as McCain is my #2 (my vote weights integrity and fiscal responsibility heavy).

    Of course as I have previously commented I think Paul is being underpolled by a few percentage points; I think he is already at 10% in NH. Data backing this up is the recent national poll that included more groups then just previous (R) voters in which Paul was polled as a (L) against 3 others, an (D), a (R) and a Bloomburg as a (I). Paul pulled in 8%, close to doubling his nation-wide (R) support and polling, in a poll which still doesn’t weight Paul with heavy support among young people, previous non-voters, etc, who aren’t polled. Zogby himself recently said he would not be surprised to see Paul finish with 15-18% in NH to a disbelieving Sean Hannity.

    Btw, in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve been following your blog since my first comment awhile ago, good stuff. It in my favorites right next to Politico, Salon, Daily Dish. Red State is no longer on the list. =P Anyway I’ve enjoyed reading.

    Comment by Li — Tuesday, November 20, 2007 @ 11:47 pm

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