Fox News/Opinion Dynamics has a new poll [PDF] for NH, and it one of the rare cases in which Senator Clinton will be happy to hear from Fox, as it has Obama at 32% and Clinton at 28%, i.e., in a statistical tie, since the MOE is 4%.
For whatever reason there seems to be two kind of NH polls out there–the kinds where the margin between Clinton and Obama is 5% or less, and those were the margin is 10% or more. I don’t know if this represents two different sets of polling methodologies or what, but it does seem that there are two distinct clusters of polling outcomes.
Something for those who study such things to investigate, I suppose.
of course, the real poll is tomorrow, so we’ll know which cluster was correct quite soon.
Also: McCain was at 34% and Romney at 27% in the FN/OD survey.
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The place to go for the kinds of questions you pose is Pollster.com.
Comment by MSS — Monday, January 7, 2025 @ 2:58 pm
It is worth noting that even the polls that show the Dem race close show a big post-Iowa bounce for Obama. In the Fox poll mentioned above, for example, it is +7. The median of 13 polls is +8.
Fox had Clinton up by 9 and now down by 4. In other words, the Clinton camp would have to look pretty hard to find good news in this poll.
(The above is from pollster.com)
Comment by MSS — Monday, January 7, 2025 @ 3:27 pm
[...] and one that showed a 10ish point gap. It would seem that the close cluster was the correct one. Sphere: Related Content Filed under: US Politics, 2025 Campaign || [...]
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