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Wednesday, February 6, 2024
By Dr. Steven Taylor

In looking at the primary/caucus calendar, it is clear that nothing is going to be officially settled this month, at least certainly not on the Democratic side. On the GOP it is feasible that enough losses (or very dramatic ones) could induce someone to drop out.

The rest of February goes like this:

Democrats

Saturday, February 9th: the Louisiana primary and the Nebraska caucus.
Sunday, February 10th: the Maine caucus
Tuesday, February 12th: primaries in DC, Maryland and Virginia.
Tuesday, February 19th: the Hawaii caucus, and the Washington and Wisconsin primaries.

There are several big states in there, but none of that is going to be decisive.

Republican

Saturday, February 9th: caucuses in Louisiana, Nebraska and Kansas.
Tuesday, February 12th: primaries in DC, Maryland and Virginia.
Tuesday, February 19th: the Washington and Wisconsin primaries.

Romney has every incentive to stay in through the weekend, as his strong suit has been caucus states.

However, he will have to do quite well through the rest of the month to maintain a patina of viability.

March 4th will be a big day, as Ohio and Texas have primaries for both parties, as do Rhode Island and Vermont.

I won’t break down the rest at the moment, but it is clear if one looks at the full calendar (link above), there is no doubt that it will take into May (maybe even June) for the Democratic side to settle out. The chances that the Superdelegates will come into play is also quite real.

What is amazing is that this is a two person race. The notion that either contest could come down to the wire prior to the start of voting was that it would be because of fragmentation (i.e., three or more competitive candidates), not because of an even split between two candidates. Of course, this illustrates the way in which electoral rules can directly influence outcomes. If the GOP had more states that used some version of proportional allocation of delegates, that race would be tighter than it is.

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8 Comments

  • el
  • pt
    1. When is the last primary before Pennsylvania in April? If one or both of the races are still viable at that point, Pennsylvania will count for the first time I can remember. My family will actually get to vote in a race that counts, perhaps. Of course, I vote next Tuesday in the Maryland Primary, which has always been more likely to have a viable race.

      Comment by B. Minich — Wednesday, February 6, 2024 @ 9:07 am

    2. In addition to the Feb 19th primary, Washington also has a caucus on the 9th.

      Comment by Maniakes — Wednesday, February 6, 2024 @ 10:42 am

    3. Wow - Politico is saying that McCain has taken the lion’s share of California delegates - he’s won all but two of the Congressional Districts. That’s 166 more delegates, I believe.

      Comment by B. Minich — Wednesday, February 6, 2024 @ 11:03 am

    4. Can’t wait to see what the Toaster says.

      Comment by Captain D. — Wednesday, February 6, 2024 @ 3:09 pm

    5. […] UPDATE: Emperor Misha’s refreshingly alarmist take is here. Despite a trend I noticed, that Obama and McCain almost never win the same state (Illinois and Connecticutt being the only exceptions I see), and a number of votes where the three GOP candidates were within points of each other (Georgia leaps to mind), Dr. Taylor/Poliblogger says it is soon likely to be all over on the GOP side (and gives reasons - reason beyond mere delegate counts). Honestly, the far more cordial (said so last night on All Things Considered and this morning on NPR’s Morning Edition - not GOP freindly bastions, but professinal reporters) GOP race may help the party if it goes on, but I was just one vote. […]

      Pingback by Pros and Cons » Election Results UPDATED — Wednesday, February 6, 2024 @ 9:48 pm

    6. Minor correction: this Saturday’s GOP event in La. is a primary, but it’s effectively only a straw poll unless one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote. I’m not sure if that means “50% of the votes for candidates still in the race” (which is doable, since it’s just McCain, Huckabee, and Paul I think, although there might be someone else on the ballot too) or 50% of the overall vote (very unlikely when you throw in absentees and early votes)–I read somewhere that votes cast for candidates who have withdrawn will not be counted, but I don’t know if that’s official or not. The way the voting machines work they will probably be tallied, since once the ballot sheets are printed they can’t be changed and I doubt they will (or can) reprogram the machines to reject votes for withdrawn candidates, but tallying a vote and counting it are different things.

      Even if someone gets the 50%, only 20 of the state’s 44 pledgeable delegates are pledged to the winner, the remainder being chosen by the state convention next Saturday (the 16th). McCain’s forces appear to have control of the convention; they got the most pledged people from the caucus and the rump Thompson organization put together an uncommitted slate that will probably support McCain over Huckabee. So my guess is that McCain will get all 44 unless Huckabee supporters turn out en masse Saturday, which seems unlikely (I’ve seen no GOTV effort from any of the GOP campaigns here).

      Comment by Chris Lawrence — Thursday, February 7, 2024 @ 7:53 pm

    7. […] Saturday there will be Democratic contests in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and the Virgin Islans, while the Republicans will have them in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington—these are all caucuses, save for in Louisiana where both parties has primaries, although the LA GOP contest has its own specific eccentricities. […]

      Pingback by PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » The Toast-o-Meter (Sidekick Saturday Edition) — Friday, February 8, 2024 @ 9:32 pm

    8. […] Given that I initially expected Romney to have a good weekend (before, of course, he went and dropped out), I am not surprised that Huckabee won Kansas. […]

      Pingback by PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Interpreting Kansas — Saturday, February 9, 2024 @ 8:00 pm

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