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Thursday, September 20, 2024
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via the BBC: Dollar hits new low against euro

The greenback dropped below the psychologically important $1.40 against the euro, deepening recent losses.

The euro jumped to $1.4018 in early Thursday trading, the highest since the launch of the single European currency.

According to the AP:

Breaking that barrier has long been viewed by analysts and markets as a key turning point in solidifying the euro’s position in global currency markets, and will provide more impetus for it to be the reserve currency of choice — a position long held by the now-weakening U.S. dollar.

[…]

David Jones, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London, said the euro’s rise is not likely to abate in the coming days, particularly later Thursday when traders wait to hear what U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson say about the U.S. mortgage market in testimony before the U.S. Congress.

[…]

The dollar also fell against other currencies, dipping against the British pound to $2.0073 compared with $2.0025 late Wednesday, after U.K. retail sales in August rose by 0.6 percent from July.

Back to the BBC story:

Analysts have said that the impact of the plunging dollar on European consumer and businesses may be mixed.

Eurozone consumers may benefit from cheaper prices for some imported goods.

At the same time, there is some good news for eurozone companies because oil, metals and many raw material prices are quoted in dollars, meaning that the strength of the euro should dampen firms’ input costs.

However, while the strong euro may cut some import costs, it could also have a negative effect on exports as European-made goods become more expensive.

The US the Europe’s largest trading partner.

It could also hurt growth in Asia, with the US being the largest market for China, Korea, and other Asian exporters.

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Wednesday, September 19, 2024
By Dr. Steven Taylor

…you’ll probably find the following from the LAT of interest: The father of our coffee culture.

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By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via Reuters: Bush, Congress at record low ratings: Reuters poll

Only 29 percent of Americans gave Bush a positive grade for his job performance, below his worst Zogby poll mark of 30 percent in March. A paltry 11 percent rated Congress positively, beating the previous low of 14 percent in July.

My word, 11%–that is remarkable.

But, I suppose it all stands to reason. Bush’s 29% would appear to represents his hardcore base that it radically unlikely to abandon him no matter what. Congress is having problems because a) Congress always suffers in the polls (we like our Congressman, but usually dislike the rest) and the fact that the pro-GOP respondents are already going to be predisposed to respond negatively about the Congress and the Democratic base believes that the Congress hasn’t done enough in terms of Iraq and oversight of the administration.

It is noteworthy that the Petraeus/Crocker report did not buy the President even a small bump in approval.

And there are these happy numbers as well:

The national survey of 1,011 likely voters, taken September 13 through September 16, found barely one-quarter of Americans, or 27 percent, believe the country is headed in the right direction. Nearly 62 percent think the country is on the wrong track.

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Tuesday, September 18, 2024
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via (of all places) Foreign Policy’s blog, Passport: :-) is turning 25! Happy birthday, emoticon!

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By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via the AP: Someone Tries to Sell Belgium on eBay

Hidden among the porcelain fox hounds and Burberry tablecloths on sale at eBay.be this week was an unusual item: “For Sale: Belgium, a Kingdom in three parts … free premium: the king and his court (costs not included).”

The odd ad was posted by one disgruntled Belgian in protest at his country’s political crisis which reached a 100-day landmark Tuesday with no end in sight to the squabbling between Flemish and Walloon politicians.

[…]

EBay was happy to take Six’ advertisement.

“It was a really fun listing made by a Belgian,” Peter Burin, PR manager of eBay Belgium. “This person, in a very funny way, reminded the Belgians what a great country Belgium actually is and it would be a shame to sell it.”

However, the company decided to pull the add Tuesday after receiving a bid of euro10 million ($14 million)

We decided to take it down, just to avoid confusion,” he told APTN.

Too funny.

(And for the handful who get the title reference, I hope you enjoyed it.)

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By Dr. Steven Taylor

To those following the UCI law school story, here’s the latest from the LAT: Chemerinsky is back as UC Irvine dean

UC Irvine Chancellor Michael V. Drake and Erwin Chemerinsky have reached an agreement that will return the liberal legal scholar to the dean’s post at the university’s new law school, the university announced this morning.

With the deal, they hope to end the controversy that erupted when Chemerinsky was dropped as the first dean of the Donald Bren School of Law.

Drake traveled over the weekend to Durham, N.C., where Chemerinsky is a professor at Duke University, and the two reached an agreement about midnight Sunday, sources told The Times.

Must’ve been some meeting.

I was figuring that it would end up like this, as Drake had a great deal of PR damage to fix, and if the school had to start all over again, the law school’s opening might have been delayed—not to mention that Drake’s job and career path were being significantly threatened.

On that latter point, Drake’s judgment certainly will remain under public scrutiny. If anything the fact that he allowed this situation to threaten the law school’s Fall 2024 opening is enough to question Drake’s managerial skills.

Previous blogging on this subject:

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By Dr. Steven Taylor

As a follow up to yesterday’s post, (via the BBC): Musharraf to ‘give up army post’

Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf will give up his post of army chief if he is re-elected for another term of office, his chief lawyer has said.

In a statement to the Supreme Court, the lawyer said that if Gen Musharraf won the election, he would be sworn in for a new term as a civilian.

While not from Musharraf’s own lips, I suppose this qualifies as an official pronouncement.

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Monday, September 17, 2024
By Dr. Steven Taylor

220 years ago today the US Constitution was completed and signed by a a majority of the Philadelphia delegates. It is a key day in the development of both the United States of America and democracy as a form of modern governance.

In reading Matthew Shugart’s Constitution Day post, I was struck by the following quote from a letter by Thomas Jefferson (that is, in fact, engraved into the wall of the Jefferson Memorial):

I am certainly not an advocate for frequent and untried changes in laws and constitutions… But I know also, that laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths disclosed, and manners and opinions change with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also, and keep pace with the times. We might as well require a man to wear still the same coat which fitted him when a boy, as civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors.

On this day that celebrates our nation’s foundational document, it strikes me as a worthy issue to consider whether we don’t sometimes try to make the boy’s coat fit a country that has clearly grown. What immediately comes to my mind is the electoral college, an institution that a) was designed for a far different time to address very specific political needs, and b) never really worked as the Founders intended (short version of that: it was thought that it would be common for the House to have to choose to President on account of no one receiving a majority of the electoral vote). However, despite these two facts (and that fact that it currently makes many voters in a number of states almost irrelevant) we seem reticent to keep it because it is “in the Constitution.”

The interesting thing is that not only does Jefferson’s quote above indicate that many of the founding generation would have found such doctrinaire adherence odd, so, too would have Madison, the Father of the Constitution.

Other issues aside from the EC could be raised, but I will leave it at that for the moment.

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By Dr. Steven Taylor

The Law Blog has Seven Things to Know About Michael Mukasey.

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By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via the CSM, we get a piece that fits into why I keep harping on the notion that we need a realistic assessment of the situation from Iraq and why it is hard to take President Bush’s rosy assessments seriously: Basra: After the British

the violence and fear in Basra takes place mostly outside the sphere of Sunni-Shiite killings. Al Qaeda is not a factor.

Basra is a predominately Shiite city, yet it is still imbued with fear of kidnappings, assassinations, and being caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.

This instability reveals that the violence in Iraq is not only sectarian or the result of insurgent activity, but is also caused by deep-seated political and tribal rivalries and an intense scramble for power.

Basra has long been touted, second only to the Kurdish regions, as the “good news” part of Iraq–where post-Saddam (and pro-US) governance was going to be relatively easy. However:

Billboards glorify Mahdi militiamen who died fighting the British. Streets carry their names. Upon the British departure, the Mahdi Army claimed victory. It had been leading the fight against the occupation since its early days. On Sept. 8, thousands of militiamen roamed the city center in vehicles and on foot brandishing Mr. Sadr’s posters in what they billed as a “victory parade.”

[…]

The militia is said to number 17,000 in Basra alone and is divided into 40 company-size military units, according to a senior Iraqi security official

[…]

They control multiple units in the 14,500-strong police force, and hold sway in hospitals, the education board, the university, ports and oil terminals, and the oil products and electricity distribution companies, says a Basra-based, Iraqi researcher.

This is a situation that has nothing to do with AQI and will not be remedied by the surge or similar policies. It is certainly a situation that underscores the lack of a central state run out of Baghdad and the general lack of control over the use of force by that chimeric state.

And if one thinks that there aren’t possible conflicts with Baghdad on the horizon, please note the following (emphasis mine):

Amid this chaotic and dizzyingly complex picture in Basra, the central government has attempted to wrest control in this vital province which, with its oil exports, accounts for nearly 90 percent of Baghdad’s revenues.

Basra also underscores the influence of Iran in Shiite areas of Iraq.

The piece is worth reading in full, especially the box at the end of the piece (click and scroll down) which details the major political players in the region.

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