Yesterday I made some quick and flippant calculations as to what would happen if the Michigan and Florida delegations were seated. Poblano at FiveThirtyEight.com has gone well beyond the flippant and did the real work and comes to the following conclusions:

If the Florida and Michigan delegations are seated as half-delegates, Obama needs only about 10 percent of the outstanding superdelegates in order to clinch the nomination; Clinton would need 90 percent. If Florida and Michigan are fully seated, Obama needs about 20 percent of the remaining undeclared delegates; Clinton needs roughly 80 percent.

Now, it is true that these numbers are based on estimates, and there is some room for variability in terms of the real final numbers. Still, this confirms (yet again) what we have known for some time: unless Barack Obama shoots a man in Reno, just to watch him die (and there’s a video of it on YouTube), he is going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party.