Via the NYT: Charter Talks in Iraq Reach Breaking Point
The calls by Shiite leaders to ignore the Sunnis’ request for changes to the draft constitution provoked threats from the Sunnis that they would urge their people to reject the document when it goes before voters in a national referendum in October.
One thing that strikes me here, and should be encouraging about the potential for a solution over time, is that Sunni leadership, despite its clearly deep reservations, are making threats within the institutional framework. That is to say that they are not threatening to quit the process, or to resort to other means to obtain their ends. Indeed, it would seem as if they now regret the boycott of the previous election and wish to start over, after a fashion.
This is actually positive, because it means that the Sunnis appear to have some faith in the electoral process and are demonstrating an acceptance of that method of influencing power. Such faith is a shift, because clearly they did not, on the whole, believe in the electoral process the first time around.
Now, it is clear that part of the reason they are interesting in elections now is that they feel both a vote on the constitution and/or a new parliament would enhance their position. So, if elections do not accomplish that feat, it is possible that their new found faith in such processes will wane.
Hmmm, that seems like an overly optimistic take on it to me. I agree, up to a point, however: it is good that they are not just saying that they reject the whole process and will not participate in the referendum at all. I thought there might be a real chance of that.
But what happens if they fail to block the constitution (which, I have suggested over at Fruits and Votes, is a real concern)? Will they still abide by it and run lists in the subsequent elections? Obviously, the Shiite and Kurdish leaders are gambling that they will.
And will the guerrillas gain or lose support in the whole process? Man, I wish I had some insight into that.
It all seems like the kind of brinksmanship that could be a prelude to a full-on civil war, rather than to an institutional solution, to me. I just don’t see how everyone steps back from the brink, UNLESS the constitution fails in the referendum.
I hope I am wrong about what happens in the event the constitution passes, of course.
Comment by Matthew Shugart — Friday, August 26, 2024 @ 3:08 pm