Wednesday, January 31, 2007
By Steven L. Taylor

Via Rasmussen: Poll: 60% Say Dems Likely to Nominate White Male

In the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, a woman is the clear frontrunner and an African-American is clearly in the number two position. Between them, they attract support from roughly half of all Democrats.

However, despite the current support for Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, 60% of American voters believe that Democrats are likely to nominate a White Male for President in 2008. Just 27% say that’s not likely to happen. Among Democrats, 73% say their party is likely to nominate a White Male. That figure includes 30% who consider the possibility Very Likely and 43% who say it’s Somewhat Likely.

In looking at this I am guessing that for the most part we are talking about people answering based on a combination of history and not paying attention. If one goes probability based on past historical patterns, the safe bet is “white male.”

However, an intelligence assessment of the situation would require an operative knowledge of the candidate pool, their current popularity and its source, the amount of money/potential money each candidate has as well as a functional knowledge of how the nomination process works. Even acknowleding that this is a likely voter poll, I have a hard time assuming that the pool of respondents fit the profile I describe in large numbers. Aside from pundits and political junkies, who is even paying attention at this point?

If one needs any evidence that that pool of respondents isn’t really paying attention, we have this result:

By an 89% to 4% margin, voters expect Republicans to nominate a White Male candidate.

Given that all the current precandidates are all white males and Condaleeza Rice has the same chance of being nominated as I do at the moment, one wonders who the 11% who didn’t choose a white male are and what they are paying attention to.

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4 Responses to “60% Say Dem will Nominate a White Male (Worthless Poll Edition)”

  1. Jan Says:

    I’m sure you are right that most aren’t paying attention at this point.

    However, there is that whole electability issue that rolls around every election year. People may like one candidate but vote for another just because they fear their favorite candidate isn’t electable.

    If enough Dems believe that only white males are electable in a general election, you could see a white male get the nomination.

  2. Dr. Steven Taylor Says:

    True-I just don’t know who that would be. After Hillary and Obama, I would think that Richardson is the next likely candidate and he’s hispanic–although I suppose he a white male as well, depending on how we are scoring these things.

    Mostly it just seems like a silly poll.

  3. Jan Says:

    I know you are not fond of Edwards, but I thought he was still holding the third spot in the Democratic race at this point. Am I wrong about that? Or were you just refering to your own take on who else had a shot?

    And yes, you are right. It is a silly poll.

  4. Dr. Steven Taylor Says:

    My view is that ultimately Richardson is a more viable candidate than Edwards, but you are correct–Edwards ranks better than he and for this poll it would be silly of me to assume anything about Richardson.

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