Thursday, January 24, 2008
By Steven L. Taylor

Via the Miami Herald: Poll: McCain rising, Giuliani fading

McCain is narrowly leading the Republican field with 25 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 23 percent. The gap is within the poll’s margin of error, placing the Arizona senator and the former Massachusetts governor in a statistical tie. Giuliani and Huckabee each got 15 percent.

Giuliani’s Hispanic support is also crumbling, according to the survey.

”Giuliani has gone from a prohibitive favorite to a second-tier candidate . . . and the drop is traceable to dramatic erosion in South Florida,” said Tom Eldon, Schroth’s polling partner.

Asked about the 13 percent of the voters who haven’t made up their minds, pollster Rob Schroth said he didn’t expect them to fuel a Giuliani comeback. ”Giuliani for all intents and purposes has virtually no chance to win in Florida,” he said.

Not surprisingly, the Giuliani campaign doesn’t see it that way (at least not in public):

”The reality is we are gaining support,” Giuliani said in Estero before the poll numbers were released. “I think you’re going to see that over the course of the next three or four days. Our campaign is now in high gear.”

I think that the political science term to describe this position is “delusional” but I will have to look it up to be sure…

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4 Responses to “More From the GOP Contest in Florida”

  1. B. Minich Says:

    “The reality is, I’m a bit delusional”, Guilani said at a campaign stop. “Ummm – I meant that we are gaining support.” Guilani offered no comment when reporters questioned whether these two statements were actually synonymous.

  2. Buckland Says:

    Tradesports isn’t giving him much of a chance. Currently they’re calling it for Romney over McCain 54-38 with Guliani coming in with 15.

    [These are the price of $100 contracts on each candidate, not a prediction of vote %].

  3. PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » The Sunny Palmetto ToM Says:

    [...] Florida will very much set the stage for February 5th on the GOP side, as the results could effectively kill Giuliani’s campaign (which, delusions aside, is on toast-support at the moment) and likewise could either solidify McCain as the semi-front runner or give Romney a real, solid win that would put him on top. [...]

  4. vonita Says:

    I think Rudy’s wife is what cooked it for him. I think the scandal in November really made people think: Do we want a guy who has THIS for a wife? That and the 9/11 mantra that got so boring.

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