CQ Politics looks at Indiana and notes a now-familiar pattern: CQ Politics Projects a Close Delegate Split in Indiana Primary
Following up a similar projection published prior to the April 22 primary in Pennsylvania, CQ Politics below has performed an analysis of the Democratic presidential primary in Indiana that projects how many delegates the candidates will win in each of the nine congressional districts.
This analysis gives Clinton a 24 to 23 edge over Obama in the race for the 47 district-level delegates — with the disclaimer that this is a projection and not a hard-and-fast prediction, because of the convoluted way in which the delegates will be distributed can produce some unpredictable results.
The whole piece is interesting and worth a read. Of course, the bottom line for Clinton is this: she can still “win” some state and still not overtake Obama’s pledged delegate count.
h/t: Marvin King
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April 30th, 2024 at 11:52 am
Ugh. What is “convoluted” about the delegates being allocated in proportion to the votes?
Sure, one can’t know just what the percentage is going to be in each district, or statewide. But one can know, with great precision, what the cut points are–the vote spreads at which, in any given district (and statewide for the 35% of delegates so allocated), one candidate will earn an additional delegate. I mean, really, with only two candidates, this is elementary arithmetic.
The only uncertainty is the votes themselves. That–and not any “convoluted” or “complex” procedures–is why it can be only a projection, and not a prediction.
UGH. Stoooopid press corps.
April 30th, 2024 at 11:59 am
I take the point about PR not being at all convoluted.
However, I will defend the press corps a bit, in that the allocation of delegates to specific districts based on the previous election’s voter turnout is, in my mind, convoluted–indeed, I believe that that is what is being referred to there.
April 30th, 2024 at 2:35 pm
With apologies in advance to dead equines everywhere, CQ said: “because of the convoluted way in which the delegates will be distributed can produce some unpredictable results.”
That sure seems to refer to the allocation method itself, and not to projecting the votes.
There is nothing unpredictable about the allocation process, given a known input (i.e. the votes distribution). It is the input that can’t be predicted with precision.
That’s what I was getting at.
Anyway, let the horses rest.
April 30th, 2024 at 3:25 pm
Poor horsies.