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Sunday, February 21, 2010
By Steven L. Taylor

El Tiempo reports:  El 50,3 por ciento de los colombianos no votaría el referendo reeleccionista.

The first paragraph of the piece states that according to the most recent Datexco poll that over half of those polled would not vote if a referendum on re-election were held, and just over half of respondents are opposed to referendum.  It also notes that, according to the poll, if President Álvaro Uribe were allowed to run that he would not win in the first round, but would instead face a run-off against Sergio Fajardo (the former mayor of Medellín).  Uribe won election (and re-election) in the first round in 2002 and 2006 (a method introduced in the 1991 constitution and used from 1994 onward.  Uribe was the first, and to date only, president elected under that system not to face a run-off).

However, the piece does bury the lede, insofar as while the poll notes that while 50.3% aren’t in agreement with re-election, 83.0% of those who would vote in the referendum would be in favor of allowing Uribe to pursue a third term.

Even if Uribe’s popularity is waning a bit, I find it difficult to conceive of a scenario in which he is allowed to run for re-election and fails to win.  Still, it is beginning to look unlikely that he will be able to run.

Some numbers from the poll [PDF]:

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The top question asks if responds are in agreement or not with the reelection referendum and 52.0% are not.  The second question asks if respondents would vote in a referendum if it is held and 50.3% say they would not and 45.3% say that they would.

The kicker, however, is the next question:  “If the election were held today, would you vote in favor or against allowing re-election?"  83.0% would would “yes.”

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In regards to a hypothetical first round:

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Of interest, too, is that if Uribe is taken out of the mix his likely uribista replacement, Juan Manuel Santos is added, Santos is even with Fajardo:

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Of course, an actual ballot would have fewer names (although still quite a few) as some of those listed as co-partisans currently vying for nominations.

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One Response to “New Polls on Re-election and Uribe”

  1. PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » No Front Runner in the Colombian Presidential Campaign? Says:

    [...] favorite, which Uribe would have been had he been able to run.  While it is true that in a recent poll Santos only received 12.1% (which was top in that poll), but that was in a very crowded list of 14 [...]


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