Via the Honolulu Advertiser:  Hawaii Poll: Djou leads Democratic rivals in congressional race. 

The numbers:

[Honolulu City Councilman Charles] Djou leads with 36 percent, former congressman Ed Case is chasing at 28 percent, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is trailing with 22 percent. Thirteen percent were undecided.

The winner will be awarded via plurality.  As such it makes for an excellent example of how a party can damage itself by making a nomination error, which in this case means having two Democrats in the race.  It is pretty clear that the district in question is solidly a majority Democratic district, but two candidate are splitting said vote.

Of course, I believe the system in question for the special election was one of self-nomination, making it difficult for the party (very broadly defined) to stop from making an over-nomination error.

It is worth noting that in the poll there are still 13% who are undecided, not an insignificant number in such a race.

Two issues strike me:

1)  The likelihood is that if Djou wins the seat, it will likely be a brief sojourn for him in the House, as the probabilities would be be that he would lose re-election in November against a single Democratic nominee.  While he would have the status of an incumbent at that point, which certainly helps, he will only have had  about five months to establish himself.

2)  If the Republicans do take the seat, it will be treated with great drama, as it is the home district of President Obama.¹

Some recent HIO1 elections:

2008:  Abercrombie (D) 77%, Tataii (R)19%

2006:  Abercrombie (D) 69%, Hough (R) 31%

2004:  Abercrombie (D) 63%, Tanonaka (R) 34%

2002:  Abercrombie (D) 73%, Terry (R) 26%

A Republican, Pat Saiki, did hold the seat for two terms (the 100th and 101st Congresses, 1987-1991).

1. Unless, of course, one thinks he was born in Kenya. [↩]