I have refrained from commenting on the new law, as I wanted to do some reading, and I allowed myself to be distracted by site tweaking over the weekend, and also had to help out on a science project with Middle Son (amongst other things).  At any rate, I have now read the bill for myself.

The controversial provision is as follows (caps in original):

FOR ANY LAWFUL CONTACT MADE BY A LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL OR A LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OF THIS STATE OR A LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL OR A LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OF A COUNTY, CITY, TOWN OR OTHER POLITICAL SUBDIVISION OF THIS STATE WHERE REASONABLE SUSPICION EXISTS THAT THE PERSON IS AN ALIEN WHO IS UNLAWFULLY PRESENT IN THE UNITED STATES, A REASONABLE ATTEMPT SHALL BE MADE, WHEN PRACTICABLE, TO DETERMINE THE IMMIGRATION STATUS OF THE PERSON, EXCEPT IF THE DETERMINATION MAY HINDER OR OBSTRUCT AN INVESTIGATION.

The main document that needs to be produced is a valid Arizona driver’s license.  And, I have checked the process for getting a driver’s license in AZ and one does have to prove one’s legal status to obtain said document.

Now, on the one hand, having to provide a driver’s license is not especially onerous, and it is something that many of us have had to do.  However, almost certainly the only reason we have ever had to do so to police was in the context of driving, not to prove citizenship/legal status.  Beyond when driving, one does not have to have one’s driver’s license on one’s person if one does not wish to have it with them.   And, for that matter, not everyone has a license.

The problem here is pretty clear:  what constitutes “reasonable suspicion” that “a person is an alien who is unlawfully present in the United States”?  It is unavoidable that in the context of illegal immigration from Mexico that the main criteria that will be applied here is skin color and language (either in terms of speaking Spanish or accented English).  Can there be any doubt that if one is white that one’s chances of the aforementioned reasonable suspicion alighting about one is extremely slim (to the point of being nonexistent?).  Even Tom Tancredo, as hardcore a supporter of tough immigration laws as one can get, sees the potential for problems:  "I do not want people here, there in Arizona, pulled over because you look like should be pulled over."¹

It is also clear that this bill will empower people like Maricopa Country Sherriff Joe Arpaio who has been criticized by the Goldwater Institute (named after conservative Barry Goldwater) for diverting “resources away from basic law-enforcement functions to highly publicized immigration sweeps, which are ineffective in policing illegal immigration and in reducing crime generally.” ²

In terms of the politics of the situation, I think that Andrew Napolitano of Fox News has a point (from an appearance on Neil Cavuto’s show last week):

Napolitano: She’s gonna bankrupt the Republican Party and the state of Arizona. Look at what happened to the Republicans in California with the proposition –

Cavuto: What happens?

Napolitano: Ah, Hispanics — who have a natural home in the Republican Party because they are socially conservative — will flee in droves. She’s also gonna bankrupt her state, because no insurance company will provide coverage for this. And for all the lawsuits that will happen — for all the people that are wrongfully stopped — her budget will be paying for it. Her budget will be paying the legal bills of the lawyers who sue on behalf of those that were stopped.

This will be a disaster for Arizona — to say nothing of the fact that it’s so unconstitutional that I predict a federal judge will prevent Arizona from enforcing it as soon as they attempt to do so. That will probably be tomorrow.

Transcript courtesy of Crooks and Liars, which also has the video.

I think he overstates his case a bit, but I think he makes very valid points.  The first is that this bill will very likely negatively effect the GOP with Arizona Hispanics (and there are a lot of Hispanics in Arizona).  I think that there will be short-term political gains, but potentially serious long-term political damage to the party.  And the bill will generate lawsuits.  Indeed, it allows people to sue government entities if they aren’t enforcing the law.  Further, there are going to be any number of court challenges to this process.

There is also a cost to be paid in terms of law enforcement.  Citizens in many communities are going to be less willing to interact with the police because of this law.  And, further, illegal immigrants who are witnesses to crimes are going to be too fearful to cooperate with police.

1. Source [↩]
2. Source:  Mission Unaccomplished:
   The Misplaced Priorities of the Maricopa County Sheriff ’s Office [PDF]  h/t to Crooks and Liars. [↩]