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Tuesday, October 31, 2006
By Steven L. Taylor

I guess Smutgate didn’t harm Webb after all (not that I expected it to do so): Webb has slight lead in Va. Senate race

Among likely voters, the former Republican was the choice of 50 percent of those surveyed while 46 percent favored Allen and 4 percent were undecided.

Because Webb’s edge is equal to the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, it means the Democrat can be considered slightly ahead.

The result is based on telephone interviews conducted for CNN from Oct. 26-29 among 597 registered Virginia voters who identified themselves as likely to vote.

Among the larger sample of 904 registered voters, the results were about even, with 48 percent of the respondents backing Webb, 46 percent for Allen and 5 percent undecided. Independent Gail Parker also is on the ballot.

The incompetence of Allen and his campaign make, in retrospect, the notion that he could be a serious presidential candidate in 2008 a real laugher.

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2 Responses to “Poll Shows Webb with Slight Edge”

  1. MSS Says:

    It is interesting that he is ahead, but of course the quoted reporter does not understand sampling error.

    Because Webb’s edge is equal to the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, it means the Democrat can be considered slightly ahead.

    No, becaue his estimated lead is equal to the margin of error, we can’t say for sure that either is ahead, however slightly. In fact, the percentages of the candidates could actually be exactly the opposite!

  2. Dr. Steven Taylor Says:

    Indeed.

    I should have clipped that sentence or explained the error.


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