Here’s why:

1.) (update: this a revised and simplified point #1–the original one is below^*)

It seems to me to assume that Killian used complex office equipment to produce memos for the file only is improbable at best. It is improbable he typed them himself in the 1970s, and doubly improbable that he used expensive, special equipment to do so. It is triply improbable that he was a perfect typist–and one look at the CBS docs requires one to assume he was an expert typist for the documents to be genuine.

I have used IBM Selectrics (never the Composer) and I remember having the devil’s own time getting the margins and formatting the way I wanted. And typos take on a whole new meaning when one is actually typing on a typewriter (note to the youngster in the audience: they don’t underline misspelled words in red and correcting mistakes has to be done right when you make them–going back and lining up the page and fixing an error without it looking like you had done so is nearly impossible).

2) The memo is easily reproduced using the default settings on MS Word–as Charles of lgf demonstrates with the following animated GIF that alternates between PDF versions of the CBS docs and the one Charles types straight into Word (and no, your eyes aren’t playing tricks on you–the graphic pulsates between the CBS doc and the Word version):

3) However, an attempt at reproducing the document with an IBM Selectric Composer, produces the following (the red text is from an IBM Selectric Composer and the black from the CBS doc–note, they do not overlap):

Now, the possibility that there is some other tech out there that could have produced those memos exists, but it strikes me as slim. However, anyone who has ever used typewriters certainly knows how difficult it is to produce the kind of letter-perfect docs one can make with Word and a laser printer. Since typewriters are mechanical, it doesn’t take much to have imperfections show up. And given that Killian’s family says he didn’t type, I find it unlikely that he was producing these perfect docs.

4) Hugh Hewitt has a list of reasons why the documents are suspect, including:

*Lt Col Killian didn’t type;
*Lt Col Killian’s family says he did not maintain such records;
*Guard regulations prohibited the maintenance of such records;
*General Bobby Hodges didn’t vouch for the docs as CBS said he would;
*Colonel Buck Staudt –cited in the memos as pushing Killian to “sugarcoat” a Bush evaluation– had retired more than a year before the memo was allegedly written;

[…]

*Most experts, from Dr.Cartwright at Rice, the above-referenced Dr. Bouffard and Farrell Shiver, range from certain to almost certain in their conclusions that the docs are not legit;
*CBS doesn’t have the “originals” and didn’t reveal that fact until pressure mounted;
*The fake docs are easily and exactly reproduced on modern word-processing equipment, underscoring the ease with which the bad forgery could have been produced contrasted with the near impossibility of Lt Colonel Killian’s producing them in 192/3;

6) Other reasons to doubt the docs:

• CBS’ own document expert only authenicated one of the documents, despite the fact that CBS said he had authenticated all four–so reported the LA Times.
• The document are too perfect to fit the anti-Bush arguments.

Again, I think that the main story here is a media story with two major components: the sloppiness (and perhaps partisanship) of CBS and the MSM v. blogs in terms of fact-checking and in this case, actual reporting (bloggers have done leg-work, like that noted above, and have interviewed experts of relevances). Normally I scoff at the idea that blogs can replicate the work of the MSM. In this case, however, bloggers have done better work than many in the press.

Robert Tagorda there are high political stakes to be associated with these memos—and if they are fakes, they could mightily damage Kerry, even if the Kerry campaign had nothing to do with the distribution of the memos.

Indeed, fake memos will be more damaging to Kerry than real memos will be to Bush. Why?–because fake memos raise serious questions about the integrity of the anti-Bush side of the equation (even if unfairly). Remember how the polls showed that a large percentage of voters held the Bush campaign responsible for the Swift Boat ads? I would expect a similar linkage in the minds of the voters between the Kerry camp and these memos. Further, a definitive declaration that these memos are fake will lead to greater distrust of MSM stories that criticize Bush.

The reason I think that this potential damage to Kerry is greater than the risk to Bush is simple: Bush isn’t basing his re-election his Texas Air National Guard service.

^* My original 1) For anyone who thinks that solution is that Killian could have used The IBM Composer, note the following about the machine in question:

The first IBM Composer was the IBM “Selectric” Composer announced in 1966. It was a hybrid “Selectric” typewriter that was modified to have proportional spaced fonts. It is 100% mechanical and has no digital electronics. Since it has no memory, the user was required to type everything twice.