It is often said that the Pentagon is always “fighting the last war”–i.e., that policy moving forward is always shaped by our most recent experiences.

Certainly that same logic can be applied to the way that we deal with hurricanes or other recurring events. The preparations and response to Rita were directly the result of Katrina. There is no way there would have been the mass evacuation of the Houston area that took place had Katrina not just happened (and while in retrospect the evacuation may not have been necessary, Bryan S. of Arguing with Signposts is correct: it was worth it).

Indeed, part of Mayor Nagin’s less than dramatic response to initial warnings about Katrina, and the fact that not everyone left who could have left was due to the perception that often governments and weather experts cry wolf over the actual threat of these storms. Let’s face facts: New Orleans had recently been partially evaucate because of Dennis, and there had been other recent voluntary evacuation orders and it had all come to naught. Further, the weather coverage is always rife with drama and hyperbole–so it is always hard to take these events as seriously as perhaps we should.

James Joyner is correct: a major difference between the two response is simple “Rita happened second.”

Now, it doesn’t take much tragedy for views to shift. To take a small-scale example: in 1998 Hurrican Georges (track map in this post–click and scroll) came across Alabama. It brought heavy rains and winds to Troy, AL, but Troy State University did not close until there had been a traffic-related death near campus. Now, the rain was pretty wicked, I will admit, but the traffic incident in question was, based on accounts, likely as much, if not mostly, an issue of operator error as it was of weather. Still, ever since then (and especially over the first five years after the incident) the University has been hypersensitive to weather events. Of course, as time intervenes, the response is blunted.

Along those same lines, Americans will no doubt be hypersensitive to hurricanes for a while. However, eventually, we will return to citizens not taking the warning seriously. One major evacuation that ends up to be wholly unnecessary and watch the criticisms fly.

The biggest part of the Katrina puzzle is that it hit a city that was the most vulnerable to flooding of any major city in the Unites States (perhaps of any populated portion of the country). Further, it was a predominantly poor city with a historical pattern of poor administration located in a state with the same reputation. As bad as the Mississippi coast is post-Katrina, it pales in comparison to the idea of an entire major metropolitan area having to be emptied for months–as bad as all the other damage from Katrina and Rita has been nothing could top the flood in New Orleans.

And, the fact the Rita ended up being weaker helps, and the fact that it hit a les populated area.

Here’s a WaPo piece along these lines.