As the post below by Matthew notes, the presidential elections in Mexico are quite close.
In such a context, may I offer some unsolicited advice to any and all future candidates, don’t do this if you want to avoid problems ( via the NYT Electoral Crisis in Mexico as Top 2 Declare Victory)
Election officials declared Sunday that they could not immediately determine a winner in the tightest presidential race in the country’s history. Minutes later, the two front runners each declared victory, setting in motion an electoral crisis.
You see, once candidates goes declaring themselves the winner, they set in motion the hardening of positions for their supporters, as each side will think that they have won. This is problematic, as it is hard to deal with losing once one thinks that one has won. Better to let the counting proceed and be patient than to facilitate that kind of problem. Further, once winners have been declared and then undeclared, the likelihood of belief in fraud and conspiracies seem to grow at a rapid rate.
One thing is for certain, these results are a very strong argument for the creation of a two round election system for future Mexican presidential contests.
Or an electoral college system.
Comment by Dave Schuler — Monday, July 3, 2024 @ 4:47 pm
I wouldn’t recommend such a system generically, and the US’ recent experience with it hardly provides a sterling example.
Beyond that, however, with a an almost three-way split in the strength of the parties, an electoral college would not necessarily fix anything for Mexico.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Monday, July 3, 2024 @ 5:41 pm
What I can’t figure is why 20% of the electorate is still voting for the PRI. I realize that it takes a while for voters to learn about the consequences of FPTP under multipartism, but this is getting ridiculous.
I know Matthew won’t like it, but I tend to think a single-ballot method (Condorcet, IRV, or some such) is preferable in a large country like Mexico where it costs millions of dollars to hold a run-off election and creates a second opportunity for massive fraud.
Comment by Chris Lawrence — Monday, July 3, 2024 @ 7:20 pm
“Massive” fraud isn’t much of an issue in Mexico any longer, but small-scale fraud in a close election still could be. The risk of fraud is greater under an electoral college system than under a national vote, for the simple reason that you need steal only the marginal votes in a marginal EC district, and not whatever number of votes can swing the entire national vote (which will always be more, and hence more difficult to pull off).
I am not quite ready to jump on the two-round (or IRV or Condorcet) bandwagon just yet. I mean, really, do you want the PRI voters and their dinosaur leaders being kingmaker? Perhaps better to let them just go on supporting their candidate if they want to, and let the executive competition be PRD vs. PAN.
Why does anyone keep voting for the PRI? It’s simple: It still can deliver goodies tp its core constituents. It still controls close to half the states, still has several unions allied with it, and remains pivotal in congress. Hardly anyone votes for it for its policy program (to the extent that it even has one).
In the way, the PRI could prove very useful in congress. It hardly cares about policy, so it will trade.
Comment by Matthew Shugart (Guestblogger) — Monday, July 3, 2024 @ 7:38 pm
By the way, Chris, on the comment that “it takes a while for voters to learn about the consequences of FPTP under multipartism.”
Apparently this can be “unlearned” as FPTP elections have become more multiparty over time in the U.K., and in Canada multipartism ebbs and flows.
The long run averages for the top three parties at district level in Canada show divergence between number one and number two candidate in a district over time, and convergence between 2 and 3–precisely the opposite that a “Duvergerian learning” process should lead to.
Comment by Matthew Shugart (Guestblogger) — Monday, July 3, 2024 @ 7:41 pm
Matthew,
I take the point about the PRI being kingmakers, but it seems to me that there are serious problems generically with presidents being chosen by such small pluarities.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Tuesday, July 4, 2024 @ 10:08 am
I really like the idea of the IRV/alternative vote system. It produces a majority instead of a plurality and it allows people to vote their real opinion without feeling they are throwing their vote away and without the expense and hassle of a runoff election.
Comment by Jan — Tuesday, July 4, 2024 @ 10:43 am
Jan, I quite like IRV (though not Condorcet) and, I agree with Steven’s comment in general.
If I could, I would adopt direct national elections via IRV for the US president, California governor, etc. (and, of course, proportional systems for legislative bodies) in a heartbeat (why so long?).
I just meant that I am not yet sold on it for Mexico. I will post on this at F&V later in the week or next (promise!).
Comment by Matthew Shugart (Guestblogger) — Tuesday, July 4, 2024 @ 2:42 pm
[…] residents in general, and especially in a situation in which a multi-party system exists. Matthew has suggested in a comment to a post below that he is unconvinced of the wisdom of a m […]
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