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Tuesday, March 14, 2024
The New (?) Kids on the Block (Colombian Election Version)
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 9:26 pm

Ok, it may well be that of regular readers only myself and Matthew Shugart will find the following of interest, but here it goes (it’s analysis I am going to do anyway, so I might as well get a blog post out of it).

As noted yesterday, the Colombian elections have seen new (or semi-new) parties have substantial success. In the Senate a new party, the Partido Social de Unidad Nacional, (a.k.a., el Partido de la U), captured twenty seats in the Senate based on preliminary results, which is the most of any party in the 102 seat chamber. A new, but not brand new party, Cambio Radical, captured 15, just two less than the traditional Liberal Party and three less than the traditional Conservative Party. A question thenb arises: who are the candidates in these parties?

Note: I am basing these numbers off of this list at El Tiempo, which is not consistent with another such list. The former list conforms to Bulletin #48 from the Civil Registry.

A preliminary way to address this question is to look at the winners in question and see if there are any patterns. First, it is clear, as I thought was the case when I saw the names, that La U is made up primarily of existing politicos who have switched labels–and there is quite a bit of that with CR, although in the case of La U, there are a large number of Liberals who have switched, while with CR, it appears a consolidation of smaller parties has taken place.

My preliminary results show the break-down of the winners as follows:

  • 5 are Senators for the Liberal Party from the 2024-2006 term.
  • 4 are Senators for other misc small parties from 2024-2006.
  • 1 is a Senator for Cambio Radical in 2024-2006.
  • 1 is a Representative (i.e.,m member of the Chamber of Representatives) from the PL.
  • 1 is a Representative for Cambio Radical
  • 3 are Reps for misc small parties.
  • 3 are new to electoral politics
  • 2 need clarification, but were both members of congress prior to 2024, at least one was probably a PL member (but due to the inability to confirm a common name, I am unsure at this point).

For Cambio Radical:

  • 3 are incumbent senators from misc small parties for the 2024-2006 term,
  • 3 are former senators from previous terms (one 1991-1994 and two from 1998-2002).
  • 4 are incumbent members of the Chamber for the 2024-2006 term from misc small parties.
  • 1 is an incumbent member of the Chamber from the PL.
  • 1 is a former governor whose party affiliation that I have not identified.
  • 2 are former mayors whose party affiliation that I have not identified.
  • 1 new to electoral politics.

Of interest, also, in the average age of the winners* by list:

  • La U: 45.2
  • CR: 47.9
  • PL: 52.1
  • PC: 53.3

It is interesting that the two traditional, mainline parties are older, on average, than the two newer parties.

*I am currently missing the ages of two members of the PL list and two from La U’s list, and 1 each from CR and the PC.


  • el
  • pt
    1. You and me. As if that were not enough!

      Later on, I will link to this from F&V, as I have a few readers who will want to see this. And you have just saved me some research!!

      Comment by Matthew Shugart — Wednesday, March 15, 2024 @ 2:15 pm

    2. Teh incredible shrinking story, since it was a right wing, pro-American sweep, I first heard of it on a blog.

      Poliblog, by our own Dr. Taylor, is where I found my Colombian election news. Yet is clearly a big deal. Merrill Lynch says sell Peru, buy Colombia after the election results came in. Here’s a local, if Miami is local, connection that heartens m…

      Trackback by Pros and Cons — Wednesday, March 15, 2024 @ 6:33 pm

    3. Colombia House result, compared to the Senate

      In the Colombian House, the uribista parties1 obtained 89 of 163 seats (54.6%) on 50.3% of the votes. Unlike in the Senate, the Liberal party regained its status as the largest party in the lower house, winning 36 seats and thus well outpacing the nex…

      Trackback by Fruits and Votes — Thursday, March 16, 2024 @ 3:04 pm

    4. So, the clear lesson in this is that the old are conservative, and the young seek national social unity! :-)

      In seriousness, is the PDA caucus old or young? I could imagine it going either way. The Colombian left ihas its share of old-time lefties, but also has attracted a lot of youth disaffected with politics as usual.

      Comment by Matthew Shugart/Fruits & Votes — Thursday, March 16, 2024 @ 3:18 pm

    5. I haven’t gotten to the other lists yet. A visual glance at the photos on one of the El Tiempo stories looked as if it was a range. But, of course, those pics are tiny.

      Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, March 16, 2024 @ 3:23 pm

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