Thursday, June 9, 2011
By Steven L. Taylor

Here’s another way that Romney will be called a RINO:  Another Problem for Romney: Climate Change

Filed under: 2012,OTB,US Politics | Comments Off|
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
By Steven L. Taylor

Palin and the press are in mutual love, despite protestations to the contrary.

from me @OTB:  Palin and the Press: Symbiosis Defined

Filed under: 2012,OTB,US Politics,media | Comments Off|
Thursday, May 26, 2011
By Steven L. Taylor

From me @OTB:  The Herman Cain Boomlet

Filed under: 2012,OTB,US Politics,elections | Comments Off|
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
By Steven L. Taylor

From me @OTB:

Filed under: 2012,OTB,US Politics | Comments Off|
Monday, January 3, 2011
By Steven L. Taylor

Today’s edition:  a Crist for Biden swap:  Silly Veep Speculation of the Day.

Filed under: 2012,OTB,US Politics | Comments Off|
Monday, May 3, 2010
By Steven L. Taylor

Via the Honolulu AdvertiserHawaii Poll: Djou leads Democratic rivals in congressional race

The numbers:

[Honolulu City Councilman Charles] Djou leads with 36 percent, former congressman Ed Case is chasing at 28 percent, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is trailing with 22 percent. Thirteen percent were undecided.

The winner will be awarded via plurality.  As such it makes for an excellent example of how a party can damage itself by making a nomination error, which in this case means having two Democrats in the race.  It is pretty clear that the district in question is solidly a majority Democratic district, but two candidate are splitting said vote.

Of course, I believe the system in question for the special election was one of self-nomination, making it difficult for the party (very broadly defined) to stop from making an over-nomination error.

It is worth noting that in the poll there are still 13% who are undecided, not an insignificant number in such a race.

Two issues strike me:

1)  The likelihood is that if Djou wins the seat, it will likely be a brief sojourn for him in the House, as the probabilities would be be that he would lose re-election in November against a single Democratic nominee.  While he would have the status of an incumbent at that point, which certainly helps, he will only have had  about five months to establish himself.

2)  If the Republicans do take the seat, it will be treated with great drama, as it is the home district of President Obama.1

Some recent HIO1 elections:

2008:  Abercrombie (D) 77%, Tataii (R)19%

2006:  Abercrombie (D) 69%, Hough (R) 31%

2004:  Abercrombie (D) 63%, Tanonaka (R) 34%

2002:  Abercrombie (D) 73%, Terry (R) 26%

A Republican, Pat Saiki, did hold the seat for two terms (the 100th and 101st Congresses, 1987-1991).

Try out our free E20-591 and latest SK0-003 training courses to get high flying success in final HP0-S32 & testking 1Y0-A15 exams; mcts dumps is also very useful tool.

  1. Unless, of course, one thinks he was born in Kenya. []
Sunday, May 2, 2010
By Steven L. Taylor

“I won’t receive him [Santos].  What are we going to do if he comes to Caracas? Walk down the street hand in hand?”—Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez on a potential visit from a hypothetical President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia.

Makes for an entertaining image, if anything.

Bonus retort:  ‘”Colombia could ‘elect Mother Teresa’ and there would still be problems with Chavez, Santos, who heads the pro-Uribe La U party, said today on W Radio.”



Filed under: 2012,Colombia,Latin America,elections | Comments Off|
Saturday, May 1, 2010
By Steven L. Taylor

The Economist has an interesting piece (in English) about Colombian presidential candidate (and leader in some polls), Antanas Mockus:  The maths of a Green revolution.

Some interesting observations:

Were he to win, he would find governing hard. In a legislative election in March his party won just five seats in the 102-seat Senate and only four in the lower house. Even so, he says he would not deal: “I will just have to present the same bill many times to get it approved.”

Governing would be a challenge given the current composition of the recently elected Congress.

He has a chance in the election due to the following:

Another reason for Mr Mockus’s surge is that he and his allies are firmly of the centre. They say they are neither with nor against Mr Uribe. He vows to continue the government’s security policies, but not what he calls its “anything goes” attitude that he blames for abuses of human-rights. He also says he would never talk to the FARC unless they accept the constitution.

No candidate can win this elections without the public being convinced that the basic security policies will remain in place.  Mockus is promising not just Uribe’s “democratic security” but, rather “democratic legality” as well—a delineation that will appeal to many Colombians.  There is little doubt that along with Uribe’s successes have come some serious questions and scandals, such as the ongoing investigation of wiretapping and other questionable activities by the DAS1 as well as the false positives scandal2 (amongst other things3 ).  It is worth noting that Mockus’ main competition, Juan Manuel Santos, was Defense Minister during the height of the false positives scandal.

A major electoral obstacle is as follows:

A bigger handicap is that his greatest political strength—independence—is also an electoral weakness. He lacks ties to local political machines that dole out building materials, food or cash in return for votes. They are often decisive in Colombian elections.

He also has some financing challenges.

And, as a parting aside, I had forgotten about the following:

As the rector of the National University in Bogotá, Mr Mockus once dropped his trousers and mooned an auditorium of unruly students to get their attention.

A potentially useful skill for a president, I suppose.

  1. Colombia’s internal security and intelligence agency. []
  2. The murder of civilians by the military who then identified the bodies as members of the FARC to get their numbers of kills up. []
  3. Such as the agriculture subsidies scandal. []
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
By Steven L. Taylor

RCN reports:  Mockus se ubica primero en la intención de voto para elecciones de mayo.

Again, my inclination is to take this with a grain of salt, but the trend is has been pretty steady insofar as Mockus has gained in every poll since he allied with Sergio Fajardo.


« Previous Page

blog advertising is good for you

Visitors Since 2/15/03

Wikio - Top of the Blogs - Politics



Powered by WordPress