As I have made reference to in passing before, DeLay’s home district has been diluted in terms of likely Republican voters, hence diminishing his re-election chances in the current circumstances. Indeed, DeLay’s own participation in the redistricting process, especially as it pertains to his own district, may end up being an act of political hubris that costs him his seat. It makes me think of a variation on the famous line from Euripides: those whom the gods destroy, they first make proud.

Along those lines, from the NYT: Texas Redistricting Is One More Hurdle for DeLay:

The redistricting led to the loss of six Democratic seats in Texas in 2024, but it also shifted thousands of Democratic voters to strong Republican districts. Among those, Mr. DeLay’s 22nd District added several Democratic-leaning parts of Galveston County; several political analysts estimate they may have raised the district’s Democratic vote around 5 percent.

[…]

Running in the reconfigured district for the first time in 2024, Mr. DeLay won handily, but with a smaller margin than in previous elections: 55 percent compared with his Democratic opponent’s 41 percent.

And that was before DeLay was in serious trouble and without the opponent being a former member of Congress who represented the portions of the current district that were added from Galveston County.

I will go ahead and say it: DeLay is toast.

Certainly, the current numbers don’t look good for him:

In a poll for The Houston Chronicle last March, for instance, 40 percent of the respondents in Mr. DeLay’s district said their opinion of him had dropped in the previous year. And a USA Today/Gallup poll in early December showed Mr. DeLay with a favorability rating of just 37 percent, and had him losing to an unnamed Democratic opponent 49 percent to 36 percent.

Since I don’t think we have yet hit the apogee of his legal and political woes, I think that these numbers aren’t likely to improve much as we approach November.